Відео

Great stuff. Have a look at the Satirical soldier. Ex Irish Army, he is on the same hymn pages.

Millions of thanks.

43:00 Since Ryan mentioned Vietnam, one must recognize the current situation is very similar. Vietnam War was such a disaster for so many reasons. US misjudged Vietnamese, they were more nationalist than Communist. Domino theory is not entirely true. Also the Gulf of Tonkin incident is also dubious. This bring me to Ryan's comment on hit in the face. All US war simulation assumes China attacks US and Japanese military on day one. Because that is the only way to rile up support from the American people, but I don't think the Chinese will do that. Because the Chinese are not stupid. And truth be told, they are not out for American blood as some politician want Americans to believe. Instead, the US will most likely manufacture another Gulf of Tonkin, or USS Maine incident to start a war. There is precedent. The question is, will the American people buy this, again?

38:15. My comment on the election is "It is the economy, stupid. " The median income in TW is below $16k per year. More than half of Taiwanese working adults are below poverty by US standards. TW has a working population of 8 million or so, out of 23 million people. 1 to 2 million of Taiwanese live and work in China. TW has the lowest birth rates in Asia. In 2022, less than 100,000 babies were born. This means in 2040, there won't be enough man and women to meet the national draft numbers. The short answer is TW's economy is bad for a long time. Taiwanese people will elect whoever can turn it around. Please understand that I know Ryan is a very smart guy, from Brookings and all. He is one of the more sane voices on China now.

37:20 Many Taiwanese feel robbed about the Phoenix plant. This is done under American pressure. It is $40 billion that could have been spent on TW. Despite the name Taiwan in TSMC, it is really an American company, where most of the major stakeholders are American. TSMC chose to manufacture mostly in TW because TW is most profitable due to synergy of many factors. The Phoenix plant is predicted to lose money over the long run, because it lacks the talent pool, higher cost of labor and all kidding aside, good Chinese food😂😂😂. This goes to a bigger problem. Taiwanese see the Phoenix plant as a sign the US is de-risking and getting ready to abandon TW. Taiwanese were hoping Americans would defend TSMC at all costs, instead of hearing that US wantsto bomb it. Over the long run, this spells economic disaster for TW. Because it is losing the Chinese market due to US sanctions. TW is losing US market due to US re-shoring. This is evidenced by the latest trade numbers out of TW.

29:40 From the Taiwanese perspective, they feel betrayed in 1970's, when US abandoned TW for PRC. Taiwanese don't want to be sold out again. Also Taiwanese knows China's GDP is 25 time larger, where as in 1995, China's GDP is only 1.5 times larger. There is no way TW can match spending for spending. Even if TW commits 50% of its GDP to military spending, it would still be smaller than Chinese military spending.

8:10 I disagree with point 1 and 2. On point 1, Taiwan is not the economic engine for the world. For the last 10 years, China is the engine for world growth. For the next 10 years, BRICS. Taiwan's role in semiconductor is over hyped. The design of semiconductor, the machines for making the chips, the packaging of the chips, the market for buy these chips are all outside of TW. TW plays an important role in manufacturing, which could be easily produced in S. Korea. Overall, in case of war in TW, there is a short term impact. But long term, the world would move on. On the 2nd point, I am not sure how much support there is for Taiwan in US. Most Americans can not tell the difference between Taiwan and Thailand. US is good at drumming up support for war. I remember before the Iraq, there was so much disinformation from NYT, WSJ and Washington Post to drum up support for war. This makes sense, since none of these 3 publication wants to publish Ryan's op-ed.

11:50 factors omitted here are 1, need for domestic US politics to create a boogie man, to create cohesion and silence opposition. If you want pass legislation, you need fear mongering on China. 2, military industrial complex need threats real or imagined to sell guns. US military spending exceed 900 billion dollars last year, more than half of the federal budget. 3, fear of yellow peril. The unspoken covert racist paranoia on the Chinese, relentless and persistent. From the Chinese Exclusion Laws to the China Initiative.

Great guest. Thanks a lot!

39:00 "Chinese scientist who were accused of being spies which was not entirely true, in some cases" WTF....

Terrible audio

Kishore - awesome demonstration.

Congrats n good discussion...

Nice

Nice ...proud of you