- 694
- 232 486
Slav Elenkov
United States
Приєднався 6 вер 2013
Help me learn, or pick up some tips from me!
MPW is Dead to me. Why Medical Property Trust will never work.
After some soul searching I come to the realization that MPW is not the company for me. It's dead to me! I think Medical Property Trust has inherently a problem in business model and leadership. These problems are not fixable, and therefore I will not own it.
#MPW #MPT #reitinvesting
#MPW #MPT #reitinvesting
Переглядів: 381
Відео
BORR DRILLING - 50 year analysis. needs $50 Billion.
Переглядів 40321 день тому
Today I take a look at Borr Drilling. I take a 50 year view of this company just like I did with Valaris. I try to determine if the company will survive over that period. It turns out it needs $50 Billion of total revenue for this to happen. Let me know if you like the analysis and what you think of the company. #BORR #offshore #stockanalysis
ULTRA In-depth analysis of Valaris and other offshore oil drillers.
Переглядів 44521 день тому
Today I go over the ultra in-depth analysis I've been mulling over for the past few days. Please let me know if my figures and graphs about offshore oil drillers is off and what other improvements I can make. Let me know what you think. Thanks! #VAL #offshore #oilinvesting
Valaris - NOW's the time to buy!!! - stock analysis for $VAL
Переглядів 8012 місяці тому
Valaris is a histories company with very turbulent highlights. Many investors are scarred from past events are are ignoring this opportunity. It's up to us to find out if now's the time to buy! I try my best at analyzing the stock according to my own criteria. Let me know if this is a stock you own or are considering and what your plan is. $VAL #val #valaris #valarisstock
4 trades worth $25k each - HSBC, Equinor, Realty Income, Robinhood
Переглядів 2484 місяці тому
This is what I'm doing. Not financial Advice. #investing #robinhood #trading 4 trades worth over $25k HSBC - European Bank. - flush with cash - heavily invested in china - super stable and established - recent change of leadership - money printing machine - foreign company, so make sure you hold in an individual account. Check tax laws. - how to play it? Buy and sell collars a few months out wh...
IonQ - Yes, but should you invest? - stock analysis
Переглядів 3 тис.4 місяці тому
Today I break from tradition and cover another growth company. This one is on the forefront of technology. I cover an overview of the company, and after I do a stock analysis, I try to answer the question: Should you invest in IonQ? Yes, yes, there are many risks, but the company seems like it's doing something right as revenue is actually going in, and it's growing. I hope you enjoy! #ionq #cl...
MUST KNOW Options Info - Manipulating the Options Market
Переглядів 1274 місяці тому
MUST KNOW Options Info - Manipulating the Options Market
Realty Income - still a good deal #realtyincome $O
Переглядів 3736 місяців тому
Realty Income - still a good deal #realtyincome $O
MPW / Steward Health - Character Assassination.
Переглядів 8609 місяців тому
MPW / Steward Health - Character Assassination.
Steward Health + MPW - Capital Punishment
Переглядів 3,9 тис.Рік тому
Steward Health MPW - Capital Punishment
VALERO is a PERFECT HEDGE!!! - Why Now?
Переглядів 328Рік тому
VALERO is a PERFECT HEDGE!!! - Why Now?
Realty Income + Spirit - a good deal or not?
Переглядів 413Рік тому
Realty Income Spirit - a good deal or not?
Year End Review - $3,839.77 per month investing. $717.33 from dividends.
Переглядів 336Рік тому
Year End Review - $3,839.77 per month investing. $717.33 from dividends.
$MPW - Medical Properties Trust - I hate it, but I own it. Company analysis.
Переглядів 3,8 тис.Рік тому
$MPW - Medical Properties Trust - I hate it, but I own it. Company analysis.
3rd Profitable Trade - $JD JD.com - ep. 487
Переглядів 785Рік тому
3rd Profitable Trade - $JD JD.com - ep. 487
Realty Income - Wealth Building Opportunity - Stock Analysis
Переглядів 634Рік тому
Realty Income - Wealth Building Opportunity - Stock Analysis
Medical Property Trust ($MPW ) is in the ER and paying for it.
Переглядів 756Рік тому
Medical Property Trust ($MPW ) is in the ER and paying for it.
NINJA Options Strategy - 49.4% per year.
Переглядів 229Рік тому
NINJA Options Strategy - 49.4% per year.
Time is running out. Recession is on the way.
Переглядів 470Рік тому
Time is running out. Recession is on the way.
BACK IN THE GAME! - Second attempt at profit from $JD .com. I prefer it over $BABA #jd - ep. 484
Переглядів 227Рік тому
BACK IN THE GAME! - Second attempt at profit from $JD .com. I prefer it over $BABA #jd - ep. 484
1% Robinhood Promotional Deposit Match a big deal? - How good is it?
Переглядів 80Рік тому
1% Robinhood Promotional Deposit Match a big deal? - How good is it?
Alibaba SAGA continues + comments on investing in Emerging Markets more broadly.
Переглядів 633Рік тому
Alibaba SAGA continues comments on investing in Emerging Markets more broadly.
$BOXX always goes UP! - ETF analysis and breakdown.
Переглядів 1,3 тис.Рік тому
$BOXX always goes UP! - ETF analysis and breakdown.
I'm up to the point where you're looking at the balance sheet in the 10Q. So let me explain a little, the writedowns are mostly on items related to Steward BK, and prospect's managed care business. This is all known if you followed what's going on. This stock requires more babysitting than I prefer, but that's how it is sometimes. Stewardship - Steward's managed care business PHP - Prospects managed care business The joint venture with Macquarie (related to the MA hospitals they gave back to Apollor, tied up in the Steward BK) These are some of the big ticket items, also any loans they made to Steward, back rent prior to cash basis accounting, all have to be written off. It's just the way the accounting works. The balance sheet is going to be consolidated, of course. To know specifics you need to read the press releases, listen to conference calls, and to an extent follow the dockets on the bankruptcy cases. And as bad as this all looks - in a lot of these deals they already extracted a ton of value, unfortunately much of it was paid out as past dividends to previous shareholders. Being a REIT they're obligated to pay a certain amount out for that designation.
A lot of these were moved over from Seadrill. They do have less risk than the others. 🎉
For the purpose of the analysis i’m trying to take deal making out of the equation
I remember starting investing before the troubles began. Was trying to diamond hands until I saw a quarterly report with a negative revenue (!) and I was like -- I'm out 😅
😂😭
Bro as someone who bought high and sold low, your legitimate frustration is evident. But you better be less cynical and gloating. 2025 looks promising for MPW. Long habibi!
I didn’t lose much. Almost broke even. Also, I’m not frustrated at all. People still ask me for my opinion on the company so I’m giving it.
no more hospital reits for me 🤷♂️
There is some room for spot rate , not all rigs are contracted at $148,000. Once those contracts expire which some do end of the year, they can negotiate higher day rates in contracts or just keep them open for spot rates. The rates are going to be steadily rising over the next few years, they have to. A lot of old rigs will be retired. Borr has new rigs that are only like 7 years old that will last a long time. It's too hard to calculate 50 years into the future, that's too far out. Current estimates of current total reserves puts us running out of oil in 47 years anyway. I think BoRR could be debt free in 10 years if rates double and they sell a few rigs.
the 50 year exercise is not about predicting the future. it’s about trying to find out if the company model works, and what will be required for its survival on an on-going basis to be profitable and dish out money. 👍
@SlavElenkov yeah, day rates are going to be much higher than $148,000. Could you do a model over a 20 year period with rates at $220,000 average ( 50% increase ) and see what you get? And instead of buying more rigs calculate as if they sold 8 rigs and see where we at. Because it be nice if they sold off some rigs when oil price is up again and reduced their debt load. Cheers.
@@nigelthomson2372well the company is already profitable and sustainable for 50 years given current environment. i can only imagine if the assumptions you are making materialize it will bode even better for the company 👍
By your own logic, though, the worst case scenario is a $2-2.5 floor in a buyout situation, which is a 50% loss on investment, and on the flip side you say it could easily double due to the disconnect from underlying property values. In the meantime, enjoy an 8% dividend. That's a relatively safe bet, all things considered. The company did write down a LOT, but that's much better than not doing so, and it shows integrity that they are willing to write down bad assets early. I love your videos on MPW. You get a like from me on this one, too.
You make some strong points. However, I think the downside doesn’t necessarily stop at ~$2. We could have a case where the company is way too heavy on debt and starts selling shares. This could bring the stock well bellow $1 and have a reverse split or two. It’s possible that the private buyout doesn’t happen if the private party sees more debt than property value. In this case, it’s a never ending slide 🛝 down in to the abyss. If you don’t dollar cost average - a near 100% loss over time. But if you do, it could turn into a nightmare for life. Either way, although there is some upside, it’s too toxic for me to touch anymore =\. And we can debate about Ed’s integrity.
You should always listen to UA-camrs and sell low and buy high while ignoring the long-term. I am sure Price Water House Coppers is just helping them break the laws with no regard for ethics. I unfortunately bought 250k worth in 2021 and holding for next 5 years minimum because I like losing my life savings to scams.
😥 i’m sorry, it must be a painful hold. i hope it recovers for you 👍
Thank you, Slav, for the transparency and the valuable information. Over the past year, I held onto the belief that the company could stage a potential turnaround, considering the NAV and the possibility of even slightly positive FCF. However, this experience has taught me a valuable personal lesson: “Be aware of your own stupidity and acknowledge that there are far more things you don’t know than you do, even if you read every report and understand every variable.” Since I was 17, I’ve looked up to the greatest investors of all time, especially my favorite, Charlie Munger. While Graham’s approach of betting on NAV and liquidation was attractive to me, I’ve come to realize that long-term success hinges on two critical factors that MPW lacks: robust FCF and a management team with integrity and talent. Even though my IQ is 140 and I can wrap my head around many complex fields, it literally means nothing because I feel dumber and dumber every day.
Largest owners of MWP is Vanguard (78,965,329shares) and Blackrock(89,509,007shares). You think you are smarter then those guys ? Ed owns 3,497,206 shares. Worth about 14million dollarinos. I am just like a hyena following the lions, i might get some free meats.
I’m certainly not smarter. I just can’t bring myself to back this CEO. To me, the company is un-investable.
@@SlavElenkovI think you’re smarter mate
I own a few thousand shares, but pointing to vangaurd and blackrock is a wicked bad take. People tried this in my discord and got corrected rapidly. Why? Any vanguard or blackrock ETF or mutual fund holds MPW, guess what? They're listed as the owners. Many of those just own a sector (like REITs) at market cap weights, passively. You SHOULD be focusing on the two whale investors (Yet and He) that each took 5%+ late 2024. That is a big deal along with the short interest, and the fact they already took most of the writeoffs on prospect way before the chapter 11, plus the short interest.
Have you looked at the price it cost to build hospitals?
@@ronm4899 i will look it up.
Since I’m not invested in the company anymore, I’m doing this more for the viewers than for myself. I thought it would be a good idea to try ad spreads in the video. I’ve never done it before and don’t plan on making it a regular thing. But let me know if you have any feedback about it. Thanks!
Looks like they had issues since 2023. Don't you think that with things getting resolved, the price now is attractive?
@@Adarsh1024Yes, I mention in the video that I think there is a good chance MPW will rebound from here. We’ve probably seen the lows for this cycle. However the problems are in the model and locations and rules surrounding the business and I can’t ever see it thriving. Long and drawn out restructurings are the norm and not the exception.
@@SlavElenkov Thank you 😊
All in
If you like REITs check out a specialty REIT $DEA. Its way oversold bc of fears about fed government moving agencies to different states under new administration. I may do a video on it soon.
He strikes again!!!!
Something that I did not see in your analysis are the write downs of capital depresiation over time. There are schedules of depreciation used for various equipment to determine the duration of time and how much the equipment will be discounted. Over so much time, the equipment will approach zero value. These annual write-downs can offset a balance sheet liability as a tax break
That’s correct. The depreciation schedule only matters for tax benefit. It’s irrelevant for this analysis. For a 50 year view I’m assuming 2 time purchase of a brand new rig(which has a value of zero at the end of a 25 year period) and some upgrades.
TORM, HAFNIA and BORR is a buy. My personal price target for BORR is $9. Payout is 30% yield is 2.48%
im invested in PBR and EC but still bearish on oil. There is so much supply coming online in the next few years and Europe is going full renewables.
Europe going full renewables? Funny how they are now allowing nuclear into the mix after realising renewables aren’t reliable enough. Besides that, the amount of hydrocarbons required to build all the renewable infrastructure will keep fossil fuel demand high. Seen some stats on the amount of coal that is burnt in China to make Solar panels …not true net zero. (I guess, Out of sight out of mind makes europe feel good). Other countries like USA and Australia allowing LNG into the mix as renewables aren’t reliable enough. I bet the 2030 new zero target keeps getting pushed back as the world becomes more energy hungry. Fossil fuels will be rebranded as essential in the mix.
Drill ships and stuff are cool and all….but what the people need to know is…..how are you feeling about MPW these days lol. You sold out correct?!
hahahaha. yes. im out as of now. i’ll take a look at the company again and please the people i guess
What discount rate did you assume and what inflation rate for the "day rate"? Inflation and discount rate is important when looking at cash flows over long time horizons like 50 years.
In this case it’s not important. Here is why: Whatever figure you assume for inflation, you’d apply it to all inputs and outputs which cancels itself out. For example if you assume a 5% inflation to input costs, then you can adjust the $50 billion with the same rate, which makes it a non-event. As regards to the debt, then rates matter, but that’s one of the variables excluded from the overall cost of existence model I’ve presented. I do agree is extremely important though and I touch on it in the video. As far as discount rate, you can calculate that using the $50 billion, and $68 or so billion difference over 50 years. It’s not a great return, but it’s not negative. Compounding is also excluded from this analysis.
@@SlavElenkov thanks I mention is as the day rate once compouned up by inflation or expansion in levels may rise faster than the discount rate implied by forward interest rates. The other thing is on price/book value as BORR appears to be much cheaper than Saudi listed ADES Holdinc Company.
@ yeah, book value is a common way to value these, but i wanted a different approach to add perspective 👍 good luck to us. hope this brings us tons of cash 💰
Who owns this? How did you come to the conclusion to buy?
You won’t lose your entire position unless it’s down 34% in one day… multiple days does not do that.
you’ll never lose your entire position because they have a way of tapering off. they do want to keep their ETF. but losing 90% or 100% is of little difference. and you will lose 90% easy in a few large down days in a row due to the mechanics of the daily reset.
Thank you for sharing this with us
i dont know men...offshore oil drillers is very specific. why not go with the tankers instead ? TORM and HAFNIA looks interesting, they got oil, gas and chemicals.
I think using excel here could make the numbers more accurate, especially when considering the costs of various scenarios. Ex less costs in low utilization scenarios.
certainly. the problem is have with excel is two fold. i’m not great with it, and it’s easy to get lost in the numbers unless you are also a great excel user. i’ll try it for the next vid probably. thanks for feedback 👍
Alright, I put some work into this. Let me know if you think my approach is bogus and why. Enjoy!
Thanks for the forecast! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). Could you explain how to move them to Binance?
I disagree… I’ve held tecl and spxl for 1.5 years now and I’m up an insane amount. Even thru the down months I was good! Even dumb money podcast talk about 3x ETFs as a great thing to hold. I have over 50k between the two.
best of luck in your investment. i’d take the other side of that trade. any gains id sell and never look back. but that’s what makes a market 👍
TQQQ up 10,000 percent since the 90s. 😂 I'm so glad this random guy cares so much about my money. Bought 0 DTE options like he wants so i can be homeless 🙄
huh? i’ve never recommended 0 DTE.
Great video! Thank you. I have a small position, under 5%. But I'd like to add more
Quantum stocks are rallying :) IONQ up 250%+ QUBT up 750% QBTS up 150% RGTI up 65% Others in the sector also up. Hope you bought a few. Louis Navellier called IONQ 6 months ago (had to pay $50 for the info though) He's worth 6bn, so always worth listening when he makes a call, paid for or not. Bill Gates and Bezos invested in IONQ, poss now a US military contract, now up to $32, some say might reach $200 Early days, Trump might soon crash the market.
umm. i don’t know who this dude is but so what? I called $IONQ too. I’m out now though.
Sold ASML at $4100 gains. Short candle went green, iam a simple worker its a lot of money for me...
Bought ASML 93 shares...
Sound advice! Thank you!
I am looking at ASML....
Same i just spent the whole day deciding if it'll be my only non-ETF because I'm a little risk averse and ended up thinking doing a 50/50 split gamble on ASML and TSM. Former because it seems like people are panic selling? That's the main gamble that's it's an overreaction by the market. And TSM just seems like as safe as you can be for the semiconductor industry
Lmfao the universe heard me and decided to stop it right there.
what do you think about SCMI super micro computer?
Do you own this? What are your thoughts?
my thoughts is only about MPW....
Wrong ur wrong bear markets are short lived bull markets are much longer look at the history of sp 500 it always goes up
that's not the point. 3x leverages slowly rob you of your money because of how they are structured. the daily resets work against you over time. this is not like investing in the s&p500
False information. Google search for the price of UPRO. Check the gain from inception which was in Jun 2009. Today is the 30th of November 2024 and till date it has gained nearly 8000%. SPY gained nearly 500% in the same time frame. This despite the fact that UPRO has a much higher expense ratio. Repeat the same with TQQQ vs QQQ. Or any other pair of 3x leveraged ETF vs the non leveraged equivalent.
@SlavElenkov I lesson to the charts and the chart say we making mad gains. So, glad you care so much about where I put my money random stranger. Jim Cramer and the bitcoin haters care about my money too 😃 Glad, I listen to you guys, now I'm 82 with 5 dollars to my name and working 3 jobs that keep firing me 😄
@@phentz15if you listened, you wouldn’t have $5 to your name. you gambled, lost, and are still gambling.
5ys later, computate is a word lol
Take it to the moon 💯
Let’s gooooooo!!!!🌕
you def bought in at the right time.
liar
IONQ is one of the most undervalued stocks in Wall Street right now.
could be. the tech is too much of a mystery i think for most investors. myself included
no..
no, what? we shouldn’t invest?
Hey Slav, great video, increase your shares to 100 and start selling covered CALL OPTION way out of the money, you should be able to generate 20% to 50% profit annually while waiting for it to blast to the moon!
great video, I have been following this stock for a while, and it is headed to the moon in the next 12 months!
amd is still garbage. lisa su is in over her head and only good at gas lighting with no results to show for it. So many better companies out there this year while amd still can't get out of it's own way. Maybe 2025 may be better like 2024 was supposed to be? 3 months into the second half of the year and amd is still only up single digits and falling.
i just find it little bit strange that the market cap is around 2billion... i mean nvidia is "only" double the market cap. and 99% of people know nvidia. for ionq 99% people don't know. i think the market cap is way to high... but sure interesting
NVDA's market cap is $3 trillion?
as it was pointed out, you may be mixing billions with trillions of
@@SlavElenkov ah wtf nvidia is so much worth oO thats crazy lol
@@shmeblordyeah if IonQ hit a trillion we could all retire 💯
24.76 Days to cover…the high short interest is primed for a short-squeeze now that “the deal” has been resolved and rate-cuts are imminent.
You should have stayed in. MPW is now at almost $6.40 a share and there’s a lot more good news coming along with a short squeeze possibility.
I hear ya. I left money on the table for sure, but I’m up 20% on my investment i put the money in, so I can’t be too mad. i might take another look at the company, but I’m not a fan of the way management handles things and the space in general, so I will probably not be investing again. good luck 🍀 =)
Thank you for making this video! I am proud to be a part of small group of investors :) IONQ delivered the first Ion Trap to Switzerland. UA-cam channel Mike Bretall covers a lot of IONQ.