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I really appreciate your efforts! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How can I transfer them to Binance?

Doesn't it seem like the labor cycle is more likely to enter into a non-linear phase at this point than not? if you look at unemployment rate or level right now on a monthly/quarterly basis it is dangerously close to getting above 50 on the RSI and getting above the 50 month MA. I can't seem to find a time where that happened and the cycle didn't complete itself and cause a recession. I know anything is possible but how can that be anything but the base case right now?

Thank you so much for this amazing video! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?

Talk about how corporate capex to GDP has looked in the past cycles and how is this number tracking now and connect it with the productivity in past cycles and now. And how these numbers look like

looks how hungover Neil looks lol

I propose and my wife disposes. Works just the same. 😉

Hey Neil if Trump deports workers and opens up jobs won't that make the unemployment rate go down

Market is having a knee jerk reaction "Oh Trump + tariffs + tax cuts = more inflation + higher rates and dollar" that simple right? Forgot to discount oil prices heading lower, the fact that Trump wants lower rates and dollar (and usually gets what he wants) and more importantly the fact that now they have real brains working to solve hard problems like housing affordability and the last of the inflation mohicans shelter and transportation services.

100% on LNG vs. light-sweet, Steve. US positioned beautifully for the questionable nature of global/European strategic autonomy for the coming years. Short semis/long midstream O&G/OIH interesting.

TLT undervalued 100%. Long TLT/ShortAAPL interesting here as pairs. Wonder what DeGraaf's robots think about this; mine have me nibbling. Anyway, great interview: useful; insightful. thank you.

Banger

Pavlick lookin' proper in the suit; Neil pulling-off the requisite Gucci: but when does DeGraaf pull that HD-28 from behind him? Anyway: best financial programming available at any price. Thoughts: Pavlick keeps the suit, Dutta keeps up the Gucci/G+Ts, and DeGraaf dons the cowboy hat and occasionally gives us a musical intro. Cheers gents. Thanks as always.

what happened to the big China trade, trade of the lifetime Jeff was trumpeting, everyone has gone silent since it collapsed? is it it dead?

Content is great please keep posting!

Is it just me or does Neil have a lisp on that he normally doesn't have? If yes, glad he's got his drank on 😅.

funny how steve doesnt mention the fact that the polls were wrong again lmao (for the third time now underrating Trump) after constantly citing them week after week. Perhaps political analysis wisdom should change on polling...won't hold my breath though.

Thanks!

Great show as always gentleman.

Harris would turn the country into California and that would be a disaster. I live in the SF Bay Area and the Demoncats have turned this state into a disgusting cesspool, homeless encampment everywhere, crime epidemic, insane taxes and a dysfunctional government. You people who vote for that witch will definitely have buyers remorse

I bet enough on QQQ's and SPY, I don't need to bet on Presidential Politics as well.

“RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump | Polls, Market Impact, Fed Strategy & Election Insights” [00:01] Introduction - Hosts Jeff DeGraff, Neil Dutta, and Steve Pavlick dive into the markets, economy, and politics, focusing on the latest shifts in polling and financial trends. [01:10] Polling Shift Toward Trump - Discussion of recent polling data suggesting Trump’s support is growing. The hosts highlight that even minor leads in swing states could be underestimated due to past polling errors. [02:10] Betting Markets and Campaign Strategies - Trump’s odds are improving in betting markets. The focus shifts to campaign strategies, with Kamala Harris in the media spotlight and Trump limiting his appearances to targeted rallies. [04:28] Election Strategies - Both campaigns focus on mobilizing their base. Democrats aim to mitigate losses in the Senate, focusing on states like Ohio and Florida. [05:27] Market Impact of Potential Trump Win - The hosts discuss how a Trump win could bring tariffs and small-cap benefits, as well as domestic manufacturing incentives like a proposed 15% tax rate. [08:28] Inflation Data and Fed Outlook - Recent inflation reports were slightly above expectations. The hosts predict a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in November, with potential discussions of skipping future rate hikes. [12:30] Economic Trends and Labor Market - The conversation shifts to job market dynamics and the possibility of future rate hikes or skips, especially given seasonal factors and hurricane impacts. [16:06] Bond Market Trends and Cyclical Trade - Bond markets are in an overbought condition, but front-end yields remain attractive. The hosts see potential for cyclical stocks to perform well through year-end. [18:44] Bitcoin Consolidation and Commercial Hedging - The hosts observe that Bitcoin is consolidating, with commercial hedgers increasing their positions, suggesting bullish sentiment among large players. [22:47] Geopolitical Risks and Middle East Tensions - Oil prices could be affected by Iran-Israel tensions, with potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz. [24:22] Political Dynamics and Election Interference - Obama and Clinton join the campaign trail to support Harris. A heated exchange between Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis over hurricane responses is also discussed. [26:23] Retail Sales and Economic Forecast - Retail sales data could reflect hurricane-related spending, impacting inflation narratives. Manufacturing output is expected to decline in Q4 due to softening demand. [28:29] Sector Breakouts and Year-End Market Trends - The hosts emphasize opportunities in technology, industrials, and discretionary sectors, while predicting weakness in utilities and healthcare. [29:05] Closing Remarks - The hosts wrap up by encouraging viewers to follow them on Twitter and UA-cam, with a promise to provide deeper insights next week.

This is awesome Jeff & team, please continue to share your thoughts each week here

Is it more the data deluge or a classic hangover? 😇

I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.

Neil is the GOAT

Respect to Neil for not deflecting from an NFP that went against his expectations. Well handled sir 👍

Great stuff, Neil nailing it again.

So glad to see these on UA-cam...keep it going!

Be 25 as what they said they would do. Rents remain high because 10 million illegals are competing for housing. Jobs are weaker but still healthy. The consumer is strained but selectively spending. Some companies are going down like Big lots and Dollar stores but Signet reported better earnings and so did RH. So people won't go buy stuff for a few dollars but buy diamond rings and home decor. A odd economy.

“Unburdened by what has been” 😂 😂 I got that

Appreciate the information that you guys provide. Seriously consider upgrading your mics!

The David Muir Show with KARMALA Harris telling over 20 ließ not checked by ABC reminds me of the Oprah Interview with Megan Markle Allegedly

Despite what the Fed says, they are most definitely sensitive to politics. Powell knows he should cut 50 but he won't because he doesn't want to be viewed as favoring the incumbent party. And Biden/Harris are putting no pressure on him whatsoever, at least not publicly. Plus, many of the voting members will not vote for 50 and some may not even vote for 25. The path of least resistance is to cut 25 with a very dovish tone. The FFFutures are down to a 15% chance of 50 and the percentage will likely be even lower the morning of the announcement.

At first, I didn’t enjoy listening to Neil because his smirk made him seem a bit smarmy. However, looking past that, I’ve come to realize he's one of the best macro analysts on the U.S. economy. Kudos to him and your team.

One interesting point to discuss would be. That there might not be a nominal recession. But per capita there is almost certainly a recession.

more of kevin !

Keep it up guys

Can we talk about the markets rather than politics, we can get that traditional media

Short and to the point. I also love your take!

love hearing all 3 of you speak truth about the nonsense the media tries to feed us. Also really enjoy everything I learn when I listen. Thank you!!

Big fan here. Grateful for this content. Keep pushing it. Matter of time until yall blow up.

Keep dropping those bombs-it's the best macro show out there! Remember your early fans lol, and keep extending the format like your doing and leveling up with style.

LOL, good discussion guys. Housing supply in my area ain't gonna be helped by lower inflation and lower rates. Unless it creates more land....

Second time rewatching, all set for the week, thanks guys! We need more people watching this show, tell a friend to tell a friend!

Respectfully the 2y has been a poor predictor of what the fed will do this cycle. The bond market is pricing in recessionary cuts and yet equities are at ath. Not to mention the fed never starting a rate cut cycle with a 50bp cut. If they cut 50bps you want to be max short.

good job boys.

Dutta is the man; Pavlick not so much

So happy to hear Neil speak up about the shameless nonsense! 🎉

Jeff, 17:50 a suggestion when on vacation stay on vacation, audio sucks, not audible which miss the reason why I like listening to your opinion