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Sequencing Risk: Why The Expected Value Is Not What You Should Expect | The Cockroach Strategy
In this second episode of the Cockroach Series, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) delve into the intricacies of sequencing risk and its profound impact on portfolio construction.
They explore concepts like expected value, ergodicity, and the importance of return order on investment outcomes. Whether you're planning for retirement or just starting your investment journey, this discussion offers valuable insights on how to navigate and mitigate the unpredictability of financial markets.
Please see our Insights Page (mutinyfund.com/insights/) for blog posts featuring notes from the Cockroach Approach whitepaper (mutinyfund.com/cockroach/). Additionally, you can access the Cockroach Approach summary and download your own copy of the whitepaper (mutinyfund.com/cockroach/)!
Connect with Mutiny Funds:
Twitter: x.com/MutinyFunds
Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/company/mutiny-funds
Email: invest@mutinyfund.com
mutinyfund.com/
Disclaimer:
Futures and options trading involves a substantial risk of loss. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is appropriate for you in light of your financial condition. Unless distinctly noted otherwise, the data and graphs included herein are intended to be mere examples and exhibits of the topic discussed, are for educational and illustrative purposes only, and do not represent trading in actual accounts. Opinions expressed are that of the author. The mention of specific asset class performance (i.e. S&P +3.2%, -4.6%) is based on the noted source index (i.e. S&P 500 Index, etc.), and investors should take care to understand that any index performance is for the constituents of that index only, and does not represent the entire universe of possible investments within that asset class. And further, that there can be limitations and biases to indices such as survivorship, self reporting, and instant history.
This video provides information regarding the following commodity pools: The Long Volatility Fund LLC and The Cockroach Fund, LLC (collectively the "US Funds") and Mutiny Funds Cayman Ltd. (together with the US Funds, collectively the “Fund(s)“), which are managed and operated by Attain Portfolio Advisors LLC and Mutiny Funds LLC (the “Managers”). Investments in the US Funds are only available to Accredited Investors as defined in Rule 501 of Regulation D of The Securities Act of 1933. This content is being provided for information and discussion purposes only and should not be seen as a solicitation for said Fund(s). Any information relating to the Fund(s) is qualified in its entirety by the information included in the Fund’(s)’ offering documents and supplements (collectively, the “Memorandum(s)”) described herein. Any offer or solicitation of the Fund(s) may be made only by delivery of the Memorandum(s). Before making any investment in the Fund(s), you should thoroughly review the Memorandum(s) with your professional advisor(s) to determine whether an investment in the Fund(s) are suitable for you in light of your investment objectives and financial situation. The Memorandum(s) contain important information concerning risk factors, including a more comprehensive description of the risks and other material aspects of an investment in the Fund(s), and should be read carefully before any decision to invest is made. This site is not intended for European investors, and nothing herein should be taken as a solicitation of such investors.
Переглядів: 433

Відео

Is the Stock Market Really as Predictable as You Think? | The Cockroach Strategy
Переглядів 5408 місяців тому
In this episode, Jason Buck (Mutiny CIO) and Taylor Pearson (Mutiny CEO) embark on the first of a series discussing the Cockroach Strategy (mutinyfund.com/cockroach-strategy/). They are excited to share insights into the decade-long development of this strategy. Jason and Taylor explore the probabilities of loss over extended time horizons, shedding light on often overlooked aspects of investme...
The Defense Strategy - Jason Buck & Taylor Pearson
Переглядів 645Рік тому
We are excited to introduce a new addition to our suite of investment strategies - The Defense Strategy. (mutinyfund.com/defense-strategy/) It combines Mutiny Fund’s Volatility Strategy and Commodity Trend Strategy. The Volatility Strategy is designed to act as a so-called ‘black swan’ investment, achieving asymmetric gains in times of high volatility or tail risk (e.g. March 2020). The Commodi...
Alpha is Illusive - Kris Abdelmessih
Переглядів 1,2 тис.Рік тому
In this episode, I talk with Kris Abdelmessih, Volatility Trader and also the Author of Moontower Weekly. Kris has been actively involved in options trading for 21 years. His background encompasses commencing his journey within the trading pits alongside SIG, establishing his personal market-making team, and overseeing the commodities book for a distinguished volatility manager. We talk about: ...
Upstream Downstream - Robert Mullin
Переглядів 301Рік тому
In this episode, I talk with Robert Mullin from Marathon Resource Advisors. Robert is a finance professional with 25 years of experience managing natural resource investment portfolios for individuals, family offices and institutions. We talk about: • State of commodity producers • Tangential investing ideas • Problems in Europe • Yield farming and more! This podcast was recorded at the stunnin...
Are any banks solvent? - PJ Pierre & Zed Francis
Переглядів 464Рік тому
In this episode, I have the privilege of engaging in a captivating conversation with two distinguished guests. First, we have PJ Pierre, the Vice President of Trading and Portfolio Management at Denali Asset Management. Joining us alongside PJ is Zed Francis, the esteemed co-founder and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Convexitas. Topics: • Are any banks solvent? • Insure all deposits? • Start...
Global EQD ’23 Breakdown with Jeff Malec (part 2)
Переглядів 281Рік тому
Didn’t get the chance to head to Vegas for the Global EQD conference. No worries. We’ve got you covered in Part 2 of the Global EQD ’23 Breakdown. We're teaming up with RCM Managing Partner and host of The Derivative Podcast, Jeff Malec. Together, Jeff and Jason walk through their notes from attending the annual equity derivatives-focused conference put on by the good folks at EQD. Make sure to...
Fintwit Bastards - Jared Dillian
Переглядів 490Рік тому
In this episode I talk with writer, author, DJ, and speaker, Jared Dillian. Jared's newsletters include The Daily Dirtnap, a daily market newsletter for investment professionals, and We’re Gonna Get Those Bastards, which is about everything that is depraved, especially finance, culture and music. His books include Street Freak, All the Evil of This World, Those Bastards, and No Worries (2024). ...
Strategy That Fits - Dr. David Rhoiney
Переглядів 296Рік тому
In this episode I talk with Dr. David Rhoiney, a Robotic Surgeon, Cryptologist, Cyber security specialist and the list continues! We talk about: * Unconscious Greatness * Strategy That Fits * HENRYs * Banks/RIA for the People * Bad Food Takes and more! I hope you enjoyed this conversation as much as I did! Connect with Mutiny Funds: Twitter: x.com/MutinyFunds Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/company/...
What is Money? - Tobias Carlisle
Переглядів 758Рік тому
In this episode I talk with Tobias Carlisle, founder and managing director of Acquirers Funds, LLC. He serves as portfolio manager of the firm's deep value strategy. Tobias is the creator of The Acquirer’s Multiple®. He is also the author of the books The Acquirer’s Multiple (2017), Concentrated Investing (2016), Deep Value (2014), and Quantitative Value (2012). Tobias has extensive experience ...
Will credit markets be tight or illiquid in 2023? - Zed Francis
Переглядів 262Рік тому
In this episode I talk with Zed Francis, CIO & Co-Founder at Convexitas. Zed is responsible for strategy design, implementation, risk management and business development. In his 15-year career in investment management, Zed has taken on leadership roles that have informed the delivery of consistent and transparent multi- asset solutions as a discretionary fiduciary acting on behalf of institutio...
The Morgan Dialectic- STS Model - Tom Morgan
Переглядів 5352 роки тому
In this episode I talk with Tom Morgan, Director of Communications & Content at The KCP Group - Stifel. Tom spent the last 16 years on Wall Street working in the distribution of research for firms like Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Consumer Edge, and Stifel. Tom is someone who inquisitively consumes content across a huge array of disciplines and extracts actionable insights for busy people. F...
Commodities with Carry and Convexity - Robert Mullin
Переглядів 6002 роки тому
In this episode I talk with Robert Mullin, general partner and portfolio manager at Marathon Resource Advisors. Marathon Resource Advisors manages investment strategies focused on income generating natural resource equities in the energy, mining, agriculture and renewables space. We talk about: * CapEx Perfect Storm * ESG is New OPEC * Fake vs. Real Economy * Hedging Cyclical Risk in a Secular ...
Competing Time Horizons of Money - Travis Kimmel
Переглядів 1,9 тис.2 роки тому
In this episode I talk with Travis Kimmel. Our topics include: * Operator Use Liberal Arts * Intellectual Dojo of Twitter * SAAS Treasuries * Why Do We Have Bonds? * And more! - This is the link to Travis' favorite book on management we discussed: 12: The Elements of Great Managing - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12:_The_Elements_of_Great_Managing - Travis' best book he has read in finance: Trade Wars ...
Road Trips and Scuttlebutt - Bill Brewster
Переглядів 2332 роки тому
In this episode I talk with Bill Brewster from The Business Brew. Bill is a private investor who tries to replicate Warren Buffett’s and Charlie Munger’s thought processes, but he is also influenced by Bill Miller III, Stan Druckenmiller, and others. The Business Brew podcast is his attempt to dig deeper into other investing and business philosophies - and share that knowledge with the world. W...
Jason Buck on The Meb Faber Show - Carry, Convexity & The Cockroach
Переглядів 8742 роки тому
Jason Buck on The Meb Faber Show - Carry, Convexity & The Cockroach
Tax Free Business Exit - Sean Wieland
Переглядів 2,3 тис.2 роки тому
Tax Free Business Exit - Sean Wieland
Yellowstone is Global Macro Trading - Drew Knowles
Переглядів 1,4 тис.2 роки тому
Yellowstone is Global Macro Trading - Drew Knowles
2022 - Year of Unusual Volatility? - Wayne Himelsein
Переглядів 1,5 тис.2 роки тому
2022 - Year of Unusual Volatility? - Wayne Himelsein
How to Turn Pro as a Trader - Noel Smith & Darrin Johnson
Переглядів 3,1 тис.2 роки тому
How to Turn Pro as a Trader - Noel Smith & Darrin Johnson
Evolution, Complexity, and the Remaking of Economics
Переглядів 4242 роки тому
Evolution, Complexity, and the Remaking of Economics
Max Arb
Переглядів 4432 роки тому
Max Arb
Devin Anderson - Convexitas
Переглядів 3832 роки тому
Devin Anderson - Convexitas
Eric Crittenden - Standpoint Funds
Переглядів 1,9 тис.2 роки тому
Eric Crittenden - Standpoint Funds
Darrin Johnson
Переглядів 1,7 тис.2 роки тому
Darrin Johnson
What happens in Vegas…. Gets Dished on this Pod. Overheard at a Derivatives Conference, Part 2
Переглядів 3352 роки тому
What happens in Vegas…. Gets Dished on this Pod. Overheard at a Derivatives Conference, Part 2
Corey Hoffstein - Newfound Research
Переглядів 9192 роки тому
Corey Hoffstein - Newfound Research
PJ Pierre - Denali Asset Management
Переглядів 7032 роки тому
PJ Pierre - Denali Asset Management
Zed Francis - Convexitas
Переглядів 4242 роки тому
Zed Francis - Convexitas
Kris Sidial - The Ambrus Group
Переглядів 1,7 тис.2 роки тому
Kris Sidial - The Ambrus Group

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @TylerMcConnell
    @TylerMcConnell 5 місяців тому

    “Trend following is a deeply philosophical practice at the end of the day.” 8:37

  • @Albert-pq1jv
    @Albert-pq1jv 7 місяців тому

    Finally a clear and easy to understand explanation of the ensemble approach! Thanks a lot guys! 👍

  • @lonelyquant
    @lonelyquant 7 місяців тому

    Praise the lord

  • @guanglefan9266
    @guanglefan9266 7 місяців тому

    So good

  • @PallieterKoopmans
    @PallieterKoopmans 7 місяців тому

    So many people think and invest along a way too short a timeline. Thanks guys for helping us all to ... think (properly).

  • @andrelawrence6090
    @andrelawrence6090 8 місяців тому

    Great vid 👏 Listening on loop 😅. Trend following works. Mean reversion works. Buy and hold works. Combining all 3 into my portfolios and getting my brain 🧠 to work well with these strategies is the next challenge 😅

  • @kanishkadavda2130
    @kanishkadavda2130 Рік тому

    Wow. Just wow.

  • @thetagang6854
    @thetagang6854 Рік тому

    Intro tune bangs

  • @navketan1965
    @navketan1965 Рік тому

    Sir, MY QUESTION IS--If trader was trading forex pair to hold for average duration of 3 days what time frame should be used for TREND DIRECTION?--IS IT 4 H CHART? Traders biggest enemy is trend flipping on A dime(e.g. 1H/lower times frame trend).Trend on 4H chart may be the best trend guide for majority of forex traders.. By the time trader confirms that trend on daily chart is up, market has already gone up about 5-7 days & if you ask supercomputer for the mathematical odds, computer tells you that odds are negative right from the start.Trend based on the last 10--15,four H candles has enough big players/juice/force behind it so that it would not flip on A dime, so trader has decent chance to make something without buying overpriced asset to lose again. Your wisdom/experience please?

  • @tigerlord1985
    @tigerlord1985 Рік тому

    Trend is your friend. Always works for me. That and scalping.

  • @theselftaughtspeculator6553

    Awesome

  • @vorandrew
    @vorandrew Рік тому

    Nice!!!

  • @Michael-ej3vf
    @Michael-ej3vf Рік тому

    This was a great conversation! I only recently discovered Darrin and I have been following in his footsteps...I too worked through Euan Sinclair's books and am trading volatility independently.

  • @benificentmillipedius634
    @benificentmillipedius634 Рік тому

    How to solve the problem:: U.S. treasury can print its own money. USTreas writes a check to the Federal Reserve for $34 Trillion and it's a bad check. SLATE WIPED CLEAN. Then the U.S. restructures its debt like Peter Schiff suggests AND starts printing OUR OWN U.S. MONEY - NO INTEREST payments to the Fed. TAKE IT BACK THE WAY ANDREW JACKSON DID. NO CENTRAL BANKS. ** Also, States May Print and Use their own currency. 3 - 4 states are already passing laws to create their own State Banks, based of course on sound currency. I suggest moving to one of these states now!

  • @VictorVelez-p8e
    @VictorVelez-p8e Рік тому

    ... top drawer interview ... thank you ... Why did Jerry quit the Top Traders podcast?.

  • @mooshoomastakilla
    @mooshoomastakilla Рік тому

    Love this. How is this channel not more popular? There is some much value here. Honestly, this is one of the best things I have found on UA-cam. Maybe that shows how much of a noob I am, but I am sure if more people knew about this, it would have way more views. Cannot say enough, thank you.

  • @chuckdiezel7652
    @chuckdiezel7652 Рік тому

    Was a great listen thanks!

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    34:52 the film Croupier with Clive Owen portrays this very well too - the stress of being a casino dealer all night without making any mistakes.

  • @CreativeStudiosFM
    @CreativeStudiosFM Рік тому

    Good stuff

  • @chara12345
    @chara12345 Рік тому

    zig zag fund launch date timing luck

  • @lonelyquant
    @lonelyquant Рік тому

    My god ! That was awesome ! Very nice insights from both of you guys!

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    1:19:42 “Surviving is the only success.” PREACH!!! 🙌🙌🙌

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    1:09:40 Exit Planning and Business Succession, my favorite topic as a CEPA.

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    1:01:06 This was Nietzsche’s point about the Classics, particularly in Anti-Education about how his students reaching for a newspaper as soon as they left class ruined their minds to being able to absorb the eternal truths. Also, there’s nothing in Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations that wasn’t said first in Xenophon’s Oeconomicus.

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    45:10 How’s that Bill Burr joke go… without guns you’re just gathering supplies for the biggest baddest guy on the block. 😅

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    32:30 “Past performance is not indicative of future returns.” PREACH!!! 🙌🙌🙌

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    22:16 Jason knows this is one of my favorite questions. Curtis Yarvin (aka Mencius Moldbug) argues that sovereign money is actually shares of stock in the sovereignty itself. Mike Green seems to agree with this thesis.

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    17:22 the damage is always done in the bubble and corrected in the bust. The harm has already been done by the time you’re considering a bailout, and a bailout is actually a form of exacerbating the harm already done.

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 Рік тому

    16:23 fair enough to criticize people for being macro tourists or dilettantes, but generalists and holistic complex systems theorists are also in dire short supply. Specialization is for insects.

  • @danc7988
    @danc7988 Рік тому

    At 35:00 what are the shoulders? What does that mean?

  • @divamisi24
    @divamisi24 Рік тому

    Great show guys, thank you for sharing these great tips.

  • @JoseLopez-nk6fn
    @JoseLopez-nk6fn 2 роки тому

    Which podcast was this from?

  • @JoseLopez-nk6fn
    @JoseLopez-nk6fn 2 роки тому

    Absolutely the best point ever! Love your podcast!

  • @carlpeterson8279
    @carlpeterson8279 2 роки тому

    33:05 “you could see a scenario where stocks and bonds decline together” 2022H1 has entered the chat

  • @te4915
    @te4915 2 роки тому

    Jerry is such a great role model for all trend followers. Great interview. Thanks to you both

  • @arfa9601
    @arfa9601 2 роки тому

    Interesting.

  • @nwqb17
    @nwqb17 2 роки тому

    This stuff is gold....

  • @MyChris128
    @MyChris128 2 роки тому

    Great interview. Thank you 👍

  • @lorenzmuller3542
    @lorenzmuller3542 2 роки тому

    What was that fraudster he mentioned he interviewed on his pod? Is it available?

  • @lonelyquant
    @lonelyquant 2 роки тому

    49:28 to 50:00...best 32 seconds of podcast in a long time. Preach Brother !

  • @seanwieland9763
    @seanwieland9763 2 роки тому

    5:40 Pillarisation / self-segregation is a feature not a bug.

  • @gordonandersty8016
    @gordonandersty8016 2 роки тому

    wow

  • @Reutzel507
    @Reutzel507 2 роки тому

    Very interesting conversation.

  • @joyflow2683
    @joyflow2683 2 роки тому

    This is beautiful, pure gold. Thanks a lot

  • @William.-.
    @William.-. 2 роки тому

    Great conversation! Great to see darrin bringing up Kelly criterion!

  • @jaskaransingh5785
    @jaskaransingh5785 2 роки тому

    Hey Jason! Big fan of the pod. I was unable to find the newsletters by Wayne that you guys were talking about, could you post a link or something? Thank you!

    • @jasoncbuck
      @jasoncbuck 2 роки тому

      Most HF newsletters are for their clients only. You could always reach out and ask them if they would put you on their distribution list

  • @whatgej
    @whatgej 2 роки тому

    Wow, this is very helpful. It's great to learn more about the business behind trading.

  • @dh6167
    @dh6167 2 роки тому

    This episode is so insightful to the whole “start to end” process of doing something like being a high level trader or prop trader

  • @aklcraigc
    @aklcraigc 2 роки тому

    I don't know why you just can't say 'SMB' :)

    • @Michael-ej3vf
      @Michael-ej3vf Рік тому

      I was wondering whether he meant SMB too.