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Liam Picks Fights
United States
Приєднався 17 січ 2013
My name is Liam, and I PICK FIGHTS! I am a combat sports and betting expert for the Action Network and Rotogrinders. I write about mixed martial arts professionally with a focus on matchup previews, predictions, fight breakdowns, market analysis, tape studies, and strategy for betting and daily fantasy (DFS).
I produce my own weekly programs "Liam's First Look" and "Bets & Banter".
I am a Renzo Gracie jiu jitsu blue belt, a former D3 College Wrestler, and I have been watching combat sports consistently since my youth & betting profitably tracked third-party every year since 2021.
My Goal: Help people take more informed risks. Good guys vs. the bookies!
2021: +41.5U (8% ROI)
2022: +99.3U (12% ROI)
2023: +6.3U (4% ROI)
2024 YTD as of 5/30/2024: +20.1U (20% ROI)
Lifetime Results Third Party Tracked: +152U (8% ROI)
Third-Party Tracking:
BetMMA.Tips/LiamHeslin
@LiamPicksFights on Twitter & Instagram!
If you decide to gamble, please do so legally, responsibly, & within your means.
I produce my own weekly programs "Liam's First Look" and "Bets & Banter".
I am a Renzo Gracie jiu jitsu blue belt, a former D3 College Wrestler, and I have been watching combat sports consistently since my youth & betting profitably tracked third-party every year since 2021.
My Goal: Help people take more informed risks. Good guys vs. the bookies!
2021: +41.5U (8% ROI)
2022: +99.3U (12% ROI)
2023: +6.3U (4% ROI)
2024 YTD as of 5/30/2024: +20.1U (20% ROI)
Lifetime Results Third Party Tracked: +152U (8% ROI)
Third-Party Tracking:
BetMMA.Tips/LiamHeslin
@LiamPicksFights on Twitter & Instagram!
If you decide to gamble, please do so legally, responsibly, & within your means.
Ludovit Klein vs. Thiago Moises | UFC Louisville (Preview)
#UFC #UFCLouisville #LudovitKlein #ThiagoMoises
Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville prelim headliner at 155lb. between Ludovit "Mr. Highlight" Klein & Thiago Moises.
Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Please understand I am still researching.
Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed?
► patreon.com/LiamPicksFights
SPONSOR: Jon Kelly's Fight Numbers. Elite resource tailored for MMA Bettors, Handicappers, & DFS Players! PROMO: Liam = 30% of Your First Month's Subscription!
► fightnumbers.com/fightnumbers-subscription/ref/2/
Exclusive Access to My Work with Luca Fury?
► LucaFury
► www.patreon.com/Furysfightpicks
One off donation?
CashApp: LiamPicksFights
PayPal: LiamPicks
Venmo: Liam-Heslin
Never asked for, always appreciated.
Find me everywhere on Social Media @ LiamPicksFights
3rd party tracked:
www.betmma.tips/LiamHeslin
Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville prelim headliner at 155lb. between Ludovit "Mr. Highlight" Klein & Thiago Moises.
Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Please understand I am still researching.
Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed?
► patreon.com/LiamPicksFights
SPONSOR: Jon Kelly's Fight Numbers. Elite resource tailored for MMA Bettors, Handicappers, & DFS Players! PROMO: Liam = 30% of Your First Month's Subscription!
► fightnumbers.com/fightnumbers-subscription/ref/2/
Exclusive Access to My Work with Luca Fury?
► LucaFury
► www.patreon.com/Furysfightpicks
One off donation?
CashApp: LiamPicksFights
PayPal: LiamPicks
Venmo: Liam-Heslin
Never asked for, always appreciated.
Find me everywhere on Social Media @ LiamPicksFights
3rd party tracked:
www.betmma.tips/LiamHeslin
Переглядів: 613
Відео
Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano | UFC Louisville (Preview)
Переглядів 12816 годин тому
#UFC #UFCLouisville #MiguelBaeza #PunaheleSoriano In this clip I break down the UFC Louisville main card welterweight bout between Miguel "Caramel Thunder" Baeza & Punahele "Puna" Soriano. Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Please understand I am still researching. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► patreon.c...
Julian Marquez vs. Zach Reese | UFC Louisville (Preview)
Переглядів 16916 годин тому
#UFC #UFCLouisville #JulianMarquez #ZachReese Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville main card bout between Julian "The Cuban Missile Crisis" Marquez & Zachary "The Savage" Reese. Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Research still in progress. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► patreon.com...
Bruno "Hulk" Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus | UFC Louisville
Переглядів 41516 годин тому
#UFC #UFCLouisville #BrunoFerreira #DustinStoltzfus Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville co-main event between Bruno "The Hulk" Ferreira and Dustin Stoltzfus. Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Please understand I am still researching. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► patreon.com/Liam...
UFC Louisville Feature Bout | Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
Переглядів 26416 годин тому
#UFC #UFCLouisville #RaulRosas #RickyTurcios Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville co-main event between Raul Rosas Jr. "El Nino Problema" and "Pretty" Ricky Turcios. Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Please understand I am still researching. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► patreon.c...
UFC Louisville Co-Main Event Preview | Dom Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby
Переглядів 12916 годин тому
#UFC #UFCLouisville #DomReyes #DustinJacoby Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville co-main event between Dominick "The Devestator" Reyes & "The Hanyak" Dustin Jacoby. Picks, preview, and predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Please understand I am still researching. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► patreon.co...
UFC Louisville Main Event Preview | Cannonier vs. Imavov
Переглядів 9316 годин тому
#UFC #UFCLouisville #JaredCannonier #NassourdineImavov Clip from "Liam's First Look" discussing the UFC Louisville main event between Jared "The Killa Gorilla" Cannonier & Nassourdine "The Russian Sniper" Imavov. Picks, preview, predictions. Betting breakdown and analysis. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► patreon.com/LiamPicksFights SPO...
UFC 302: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov | MAIN CARD Preview
Переглядів 19214 днів тому
#UFC #UFC302 #JailtonAlmeida #AlexanderRomanov Clip from my series "Liam's First Look." We breakdown upcoming UFC fights from a betting perspective. UFC 302 Main Card Bout between Jailton Almeida & Alexander "King Kong" Romanov. Please understand that this is before I have concluded my research process. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► ...
UFC 302: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejcuzk | MAIN CARD Preview
Переглядів 27014 днів тому
#UFC #UFC302 #KevinHolland #MichalOleksiejczuk Clip from my series "Liam's First Look." We breakdown upcoming UFC fights from a betting perspective. UFC 302 Feature Bout between "Big Mouth" Kevin Holland & Michal Oleksiejczuk. Please understand that this is before I have concluded my research process. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► pa...
UFC 302: Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa | Co-Main Event Preview
Переглядів 27314 днів тому
#UFC #UFC302 #SeanStrickland #PauloCosta Clip from my series "Liam's First Look." We breakdown upcoming UFC fights from a betting perspective. This week: UFC 302 Main Event Title Fight between Islam Makhachev & Dustin Poirier. Please understand that this is before I have concluded my research process. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ► pa...
UFC 302: Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier | MAIN EVENT Preview
Переглядів 23914 днів тому
#UFC #UFC302 #IslamMakhachev #DustinPoirier Clip from my series "Liam's First Look." We breakdown upcoming UFC fights from a betting perspective. This week: UFC 302 Main Event Title Fight between Islam Makhachev & Dustin Poirier. Please understand that this is before I have concluded my research process. Access to my extensive fighter notes library, market analysis, & bets as they are placed? ►...
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov | Betting, Picks, Predictions CLIPS
Переглядів 202Місяць тому
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov | Betting, Picks, Predictions CLIPS
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez | Betting, Picks, Prediction CLIPS
Переглядів 180Місяць тому
Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez | Betting, Picks, Prediction CLIPS
Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa | UFC Vegas 88 Preview (First Look)
Переглядів 3583 місяці тому
Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa | UFC Vegas 88 Preview (First Look)
Tuivasa vs. Tybura Main Event Breakdown! (UFC Vegas 88 First Look)
Переглядів 1153 місяці тому
Tuivasa vs. Tybura Main Event Breakdown! (UFC Vegas 88 First Look)
UFC 298: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 1564 місяці тому
UFC 298: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo | First Look CLIPS
UFC 298: Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal | Feature Bout First Look | CLIPS
Переглядів 1324 місяці тому
UFC 298: Ian Garry vs. Geoff Neal | Feature Bout First Look | CLIPS
UFC 298: Whittaker vs. Costa | Co-Main Event Preview | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 924 місяці тому
UFC 298: Whittaker vs. Costa | Co-Main Event Preview | First Look CLIPS
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Main Event Preview | CLIPS
Переглядів 2444 місяці тому
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria | Main Event Preview | CLIPS
UFC 297: Malcolm "X" Gordon vs. Jimmy "Brick" Flick | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 1664 місяці тому
UFC 297: Malcolm "X" Gordon vs. Jimmy "Brick" Flick | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Jasmine Jasudavicious vs. Priscila Cachoeira | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 1984 місяці тому
UFC 297: Jasmine Jasudavicious vs. Priscila Cachoeira | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 2044 місяці тому
UFC 297: Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 3034 місяці тому
UFC 297: Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 5664 місяці тому
UFC 297: Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Taveras | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Charles "Air" Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 2934 місяці тому
UFC 297: Charles "Air" Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 2524 місяці тому
UFC 297: Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Arnold "Almighty" Allen vs. Movsar Evloev | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 2164 місяці тому
UFC 297: Arnold "Almighty" Allen vs. Movsar Evloev | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 2164 місяці тому
UFC 297: Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Neil Magny vs. "Proper" Mike Malott | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 1574 місяці тому
UFC 297: Neil Magny vs. "Proper" Mike Malott | First Look CLIPS
UFC 297: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva | First Look CLIPS
Переглядів 1124 місяці тому
UFC 297: Raquel Pennington vs. Mayra Bueno Silva | First Look CLIPS
He bet zack reese and then stole his hair cut🤣🤣🤣💀
I’m actually big on Tagir, he’s a prospect who lost to a tough vet. Typically when that happens a guy loses because he gassed out but Tagir just got outsmarted. I think with time he has the talent and heart to be a legit contender. My belief is that time is now
I'm surprised that zero (O) ? cappers so far have chosen Polastri. I'm curious what you think after watching the tape, because....Polastri all day...I've been winning on her ever since the Jasimine fight. She's way better than anyone Knutsson has ever fought, would finish all of Knutsson's opponents, probably by massacre. Near +200 on her? Yeah, man, that's the side. ..
Thanks dudes
Liam, you’re my fav ufc capper. Your depth & analysis is second to none 👊🏽 Great work brotha.
PRECIATE YOU GOAT <3
Ufc matchmakers know what they’re doing with Van and Taira here. Perez being overvalued coming off last win and Tagir is overrated in my opinion. We’ve seen enough counter wrestling/get ups from Van to know he’s a live dog. Look at the layup they gave Reyes last week (no offense to Jacoby it was an awful matchup). Just an observation 🕵️♂️
Van / Taira parlay pays out +346 I’ve strayed away from parlays but I like this ☝️
May be a wrong profession type of situation.
Gotdamn G Fernandes blessed w that thang.
Taira on the mic after winning. ‘My name is Tatsuro Taira, I’m happy, Thank you’
Flyweight trends to finishes actually. I ran the 2023 numbers. Under 1.5 most lucrative weightclass is lightweight, followed by Flyweight and middleweight which are about equal.
Good call bro that was my mistake 💯
A larger sample size and you will see only 44% of the time the fight finishes ITD over the last decade + so while in 2023 the unders were profitable I think that just goes to show that flyweights are becoming more dangerous finishers as time goes on.
@@MMALineMover I think it’s the unnatural weight cuts to get that low in weight. I need to get the exact numbers I arrived at but it was around 44% of times flyweight hit under 1.5 last year, lightweight was about 52% I think. Featherweight was the lowest,and welterweight is weird I think I observed that welterweight either ends early or in round 3/decision
@@smallworldlifters 1 year is a small amount of data still believe it or not
@@MMALineMover I hundred percent get what your saying but it’s the most modern sample size you can get. Before 2023 we were plagued with fight island fights where athletes were fighting at 4am and living in a hotel bubble for example. And before that the leg kick isn’t implemented like it is now. Beyond that, implementing those stats has been working for me generally so … it’s matchup dependent anyway
Constructive criticism if you can segment the video or put something up showing the fight you are discussing it helps alot.
time stamps will be nice
@@dlanjobo added!
A vote up is FREE boys
Been waiting to hear your thoughts on Taira getting his step up here
Reyes bruno and markos came through BIG! tonight liam! I always know I'm on the right track when I come to bets and banter and you have a similar take.
MY ABSOLUTE BROTHER! I appreciate the support & I'm glad you were able to cash. You are one of the very sharpest among the sharpest chat in the game 👊🏼☘️🔪
Love the look this week!
When we see the board the same the bookies are in shambles 🚀
Moura's ass is asstonishing
Liam, I'm driving my truck as I listen to the breakdown of the Jiu-Jitsu practitioner. At the end the Mexican young man you had mentioned that winging punches punches and missing doesn't rack up points in the judge's eyes. You worded it different. And by the way I'm using the microphone so it might pick up errors. I disagree. I think Strickland clearly beat duplicity. I think duplicia was winging punches like overhands I believe and missing clearly while Strickland was tagging him like four times versus a missed Wing punch and they gave it to duplicia like Caitlin creates a visual of winging and missing but she goes further with no shame and adds sound effects. I truly believe and it's a shame that missing punches can win you a fight when it's a close fight
I disagree about the Strickland/DDP fight but I agree with your broader point that volume can influence the judges 100% even when it's not effective volume
Ive realized something recently. Noone ever brings up the fact that muscle fatigue and cardio fatigue are 2 different things. Its why many wrestlers turn into strikers. Moving a lot is easier than constantly engaging the slow twitch muscles
Great analysis brother. I refer to this phenomenon as "wrestling yourself into a hole." Unless you have elite tds that are so consistent you can get them and maintain top position without using more energy than your opponent, you have to pick your spots. There is a reason highest level wrestling matches are 7 minutes or less, it's physically insane to do a full body exertion for that extended period. It's a combination of cardio, muscular endurance, mental toughness / sport psychology
@LiamPicksFights puna really showed me tonight the physicality at 185 really was the biggest hole in his game. He didn't fatigue tonight at a high pace because he wasn't forced to overwork himself and it paid off big. I was at the event and got him at +300 live in rnd 1 before the viewers wised up
GOD bless!
God bless you Jacob 🙏🏼 ❤️ ☘️ thanks for being a part of the show
Great breakdowns!
Some guy posted his -103 two leg parlay with Katona and Baeza, he was dead serious too. Lmao
🤦♂
Everybody's got a different style. That is not my style 👊🏼☘️ appreciate your support brother. Best of luck
@@LiamPicksFights your content is great man! One of the few people who understands losing is part of the fight game and you aren’t harsh off guys coming off fair losses.
You know I had to take Puna ML after roasting this parlay lol it’s round 3 I’m hoping to cash the KO prop
W!
Indeed! Bounce back week 🫱🏼🫲🏽☘️
This guy Wiz, looks like Dominik Reyes twin or brother
Wiz & Dom are up 📈☘️ thanks for tuning in
1:00 - Dos Santos vs Tomar 8:15 - Stamann vs Lapilus 13:30 - Moura vs Gomez 22:10 - Castañeda vs Marcos 27:01 - Lee vs De La Rosa 32:35 - Katona vs Butler 43:50 - Radtke vs Prates 51:15 - Klein vs Moises 1:00:03 - Baeza vs Soriano 1:13:10 - Marquez vs Reese 1:20:40 - Ferreira vs Stoltzfus 1:24:40 - Rosas Jr vs Turcios 1:29:10 - Jacoby vs Reyes 1:36:45 - Cannonier vs Imavov Great show as always Liam! good luck everyone 💰
You're a goat for this! Thank you Matador
Legend ... Thank you sir !
Train by day stacking paper watching cage fights with Liam by night... all day
From your lips to God's ears brother 🙏🏼🍻
What the hell is this wizz guy talking about? Moura didn't gas one bit against Conejo in the second round...LOL...I guess these specimens say whatever to justify their picks and bets
I hope you dont invest much into Moura, beating Conejo is like beating a child
@@XPMatador no of course not...but she's definitely in one of my parlays.... She is huge against Gomes and tbh I don't rate Gomes as a power puncher....she got Brazil but her win over Juaregui was luck all the way. She may not have an advantage on the feet against moura quite honestly. I don't think Gomes has a very high fight IQ...she's gonna throw a spinning back kick within the first minute or two and get taken down immediately. Too many ways for Moura to win IMO.
@@paulbrasfield1594 good luck with the parlay she has the tools to beat Gomes but at the price is a no go for me.
@@XPMatador thanks...I gotta try to nail these bookies...been hot lately
Happy birthday!!
Thank you my brother 👊🏼 🍀
Love the spicy late night show haha
Gotta do more of these 😂
Loved the whole Katona breakdown and reply
Mmaguru as the guest;)
Pls no
Man He is True wizard of moneymakers .we can all learn from him
I would have him on but he has a much larger channel so I doubt he would be interested 🤣 he's welcome to come on for a breakdown 100%
@@LiamPicksFightsloved it .
Let's go!
Bets and banter tonight?
Indeed brother
"I wouldn't take brad katona -600 against any fighter in the UFC." Really? No one huh? That is probably why you don't win. The influencers are doing the trendy thing of blindly saying that every massive favorite is over valued because of some petty criticism. Meanwhile the line has moved to -700. Take the hint.
I was thinking the same. If the line is -300 or more, then you tubers are unanimously against it. You will hear the "I wouldn't make him that big a favorite against anyone." It's a cool thing to say apparently.
www.betmma.tips/LiamHeslin
My lifetime record betting big dogs is 28% ROI. God bless & good luck tail fade or indifferent
I trust Liam the 🐐 putting up content every week more so than the sun coming up everyday
Thanks for the breakdowns Liam! I much prefer podcasts on Apple for first look and bets and banter, but if it takes more than a day to get it up on other platforms it’s probably not worth it… nonetheless great stuff as always
Thank you so much for the feedback 👊🏼 I will try to prioritize same day podcast Turnarounds when I figure out the new upload procedure
How much can we still put into age consideration with usada gone?
Good question. There is still a limit to what drugs can do but that's a valid point to raise
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Thank you for the concise breakdowns Liam
Thanks dude you’re the man
lapilus by dec - baeza - rosas is the play boys
Liam bringing the word anthropomorphic mainstream whether you like it or not 👊
great show again Liam
Thanks Sigma 👊🏼☘️ appreciate your support
All he needed was timestamps. Now I really rock with you
Thanks Soup Can! 🤝