Відео

Art Berman is a masterclass in deflating delusion.

cristal clear thinking very clearly presented. tough.

Well said!

There is a solution. We can change our behavior by embracing our 'so called' expenses, but in order to make this behavioral transition and still be profitable, we have to change our profit model. This is an example of a new profit model that would actually make embracing our expenses very profitable: "Profit = protecting and enriching the environment, and sharing the sustenance it provides for all of us". All of our gains come to us from the environment. It follows that the environment is our profit, even with the expense of caring for and enriching it. In fact, I would say our so called 'expenses' are a blessing as is the environment. Our present profit model "profit=income-expenses" says that profit = money and virtually everything else is expenses. It requires us to avoid and or eliminate as many expenses as possible, so we must ignore the damages we are doing to the environment and fire as many people from their jobs as is possible. No wonder there is so much homelessness, and the planet is on fire. The new profit model works because it changes the meaning of expenses so that now the only major expense is to ignore the damages we cause to the environment. The new profit model requires us to create millions of new jobs that will come under the heading "Caretakers of the Environment". Caretakers of the Environment will be divided into many specialized categories: (1) removing pollution that is already contaminating the environment. (2) collecting pollution before it contaminates the environment. (3) dealing with the waste in such ways that are good for the environment and or good for the production of products. (4) regulating human population by economically incentivizing families with 2 or fewer children and economically punishing families with too many children. If money were no longer an issue, we would be in a position to replace transportation methods with cleverer, and less damaging, ways to travel.

Virgin glass may have been cheaper simply because we don't take into account the social and environmental costs. But we are running out of sand. And there was a concerted effort to get rid of the glass bottle - ua-cam.com/video/-n15VAcpuAI/v-deo.html

The Western Democracies will never be proactive to solve a problem. A command driven authoritarian economy to use less energy will be the only way. But, will only occur in the West after the collapse.

I wonder if the speaker drives a car? Does he fly to Hawaii? Does he fly to visit his grandkids? And the same questions for the audience. Do you use your heater when it's cold, or aircon when it's hot? I do. How much "stuff" do you own? What did you buy today? Your conclusions lead me to think that we won't solve this voluntarily. We can probably look forward to poverty, war, starvation, disease, and a return to human slavery. Ooops! Did I say that out loud? But that is the history of life on earth. We are spoiled, living in a temporary lucky period of abundance. Look at how nature operates. Boom in the Spring and bust in Winter, every year. A fish lays a million eggs and 10 survive. A plant produces a million seeds and 10 germinate. Is it going to be different for us? This was a good discussion. Thanks.

GDP is a terrible measure of economic prosperity. If we focus our energy usage only on things we need and not our wants, we can reduce our emissions, but GDP will definitely reduce.

Look up "Collapse Acceptance"

25:55 The major -dip in oil on the graph is from the oil crisis in the mid-late 70s, when People in the US couldn't drive their massive gas guzzlers so much. The second smaller -dip later on is the 2008 crash. SOMEHOW WE SURVIVED BOTH CRISES

How much recoverable materials are in the landfills? Why are there no train networks in the US? Why aren't we using safer nuclear power? Why isn't education free in the US? Why does the US need such a bloated military? Why aren't we living in a global socialist world? All I am saying is that the solutions have been here for at least 200 years, and we are now paying the price for ignoring them. IOW, it was mostly the US and the greater West that has caused this mess, and it is going to pay the biggest price. The rest of the world will be there for (some of) Us when we fall.

Truth hurts. Excellent presentation!

We walked to school, our kids rode the bus now they are individually picked up. Seems to me we are welking backwards!

680 Terawatts Heater heating Earth ecosphere (oceans 93%) & melting ice for 2010-2021 because "greenhouse gases (GHGs)" keep increasing. 45 Terawatts Total human energy-producing heat (generated, delivered + generation/line losses) with current coal/oil/gas/fission/wind/solar PV mix

Spreading more fear uncertainty and doubt will get us nowhere. This is just more encouragement to sit on our hands and change nothing. There are alternatives to coal oil and gas.

The 3 fold overshoot is the overarching problem and it happens to roughly coincide with the energy efficiency of fossil fuel use. One good example is that the combustion engine has not improved much in the last century.

I believe that our predicament is often referred to as the great filter

At 9:30 If my choice is between a lower standard of living vs death by global warming, I'll lower my standards pdq.

In America, Donald Trump is to Climate Change ; as a Full Tank of Gas is to a Car Fire..!

What I do not see in your excellent presentation is our heat energy production: polymath Eliot Jacobson calculates that we are producing the heat energy equivalent of 13 Hiroshima nuclear bomb blasts (each one generates 63 trillion BTUs) per second, or 1,036,800 per day. No wonder we are burning up!

Plastics are made from the distillation of oil, the 13.3 million barrels per day we use here in the US. However, "plastic" can be made from biodegradable materials. The enormously powerful fossil fuel industry controls the narrative that we are utterly dependent on oil, although our ancestor made do before oil was burned in the mid to late 19th century. Our real problem is our gigantic "ecological footprint" (Bill Rees) and massive human overpopulation, 3,000 times more numerous than were our ecologically balanced ancestral Hunter-Gatherer clan/band members, numbering less than 150 (the Dunbar number) per clan/band. Water power was out energy source during the early industrial revolution, before we "progressed" to coal and steam power. Oil and coal have allowed for our massive overpopulation and painted us into an impossible corner. We are now increasing our heat energy generation by about 0.20 to 0.25 degC surface air temp increase YEAR TO YEAR, so at this rate we may see 3.0 degC by 2030-31. This can be seen in the 1.2 trillion tons of melting global ice annually, 3.3 billion tons per day, in the 321 million cubic miles of oceans heating on the surface to 70 degF, and the 1 trillion tons of water vapor evaporating from those overheated seas. Thanks for this great presentation!

Using a finite source like its infinite does not work ever.

The biggest source of problems is solutions. Old truism. As for technology and industrial capacity being the savior of humanity, I refer you to the Will Rogers truism......... "If stupidity got us into this mess, why can't it get us out?"

Overpopulation occurs before an extinction.

The Climate movement is not about misunderstanding, lack of knowledge or a need for direction. It's purpose is to control the populace to ensure a ready supply of workers to support the elites. The movement has succeeded in brainwashing a percentage to use as it's idiots.

AI and bitcoin mining will just increase our energy consumption.

Refreshingly straightforward talk about the elephant in the room. Art's closing remark is still diplomatic. If Art says 'use less energy', this also means 'be (materially )poorer' . And he could have added: 'have fewer babies'.

All these Doomsayers hopping on the bandwagon of climate change catastrophe. When in fact the World is flourishing thanks to CO2 being released into the Biosphere.

We have a capitalism predicament, not a human predicament

Art's poor microphone audio quality makes this unlistenable

This is a very large project that involves the major countries in the world, not just America. The hardest thing to do in a project with many people from different locations is to keep everyone focused and going in the same direction. Everyone needs to be sold what the objectives and goals are and to get them onboard with these goals and objectives. This is hard work.

I do get it civilization is built upon abundant energy dense, easy 🛢️ which gave the most powerful nations incredible advancements in standard of living. These are also self serving governments who will not give up the easy energy solution albeit the day of reckoning isn't far off. Btw, the most intense energy consuming nation (per capita) is also the biggest spender on military.

Steel cement plastic and fertalizer can all be made with hydrogen. Geoogical hydrogen deposits are all around the globe. FCEV will replae ICEs.

48:10 the Chinese apparently have a working modular molten salt reactor up and running in the Gobi Desert. See Simon P Michaux ‘A walk in the light green’ presentation.😊

We are about to go the way of the mammoth and the other megafauna, whilst we bicker about whether we are going to ‘save the planet’ by acting this way or that, and yet every day the magnetosphere continues to weaken and the polar reversal draws nearer. See MarkoPL100 (4 minutes). It’s pretty certain that beyond 2050 the overpopulation will have been (again) resolved for us. It’s presently hard to find evidence to support the notion that we’re evolving sufficiently quickly to avoid the repeating cycle.😊

I cannot believe how much this video explains. I live for 20 years in the same building which was built 100 years ago. My concrete consumption is probably with bounds. The solution to this problem is understanding it.

Live closer to your work.

Oil, energy, money and organization are interconvertable substances. One is converted into the other.

Welp, the Fermi Paradox is solved.

Energy is the economy, oil is the worst energy we kept/keep subsidizing and still are depending on right now. But because the oil companies fooled us for decades here we are. Look at us, everything is changing and we stuck on whether we can or can't. Those graphs are a result of our oil fiend policies. God help us.

Zealots always arm themselves with the “science”. Fauci jr here isn’t the “science” either. His assertions are suspect wholesale. Sophist

No politicial of the present type would go to elections with a moto of declining GDP by 20% every 4 years. [Check] No population of any ethnicity would accept a programmed decline of his material life, voluntarily, unless persuaded of the danger for survival. (example rationing of food in wars) [check], No group of persons would accept a misery of it's own life seeing other persons thriving (and insultingly neglecting this misery) [check]. So ... there is no addressing of the human proplem without facing inequality. [please check]. Proposition: ration ecosystem services. Introduce a new value (and means of exchange) on this value. generate a system for a personal trading of this value with plain money (an exchange mechanism). All these require an international cooperation of unprecedented scale efficiency and coordination [check negatrive ?]

In the future we can't be as many of us are drinking and eating....population size is also an issue. Luckily women are deciding to have less offspring if at all.

What is the effect of Planned Obsolescence on resource consumption and pollution? When have you heard economists talk about the *depreciation* of durable consumer goods? What is Net Domestic Product?

Art knows energy.

《 Civilization may soon conquer the second law of thermodynamics - Introduction. 》 Sir Isaac Newton wrote a professional scientific paper deriving the second law of thermodynamics, without rigorously formulating it, on his observations that the heat of a fire in a fireplace flows through a fire prod only one way - towards the colder room beyond. Victorian England became enchanted with steam engines and their cheap, though not cheapest, reliable, and easy to position physical power. Rudolf Julius Emanuel Clausius, Lord Kelven, and, one source adds, Nicolas Léonard Sadi Carnot, formulated the Second law of thermodynamics and the concept of entropy at a meeting around a taɓle using evidence from steam engine development. These men considered with acceptance [A+] Inefficiently harnessing the flow of heat from hot to cold or [B+] Using force to Inefficiently pump heat from cold to hot. They considered with rejection [A-] Waiting for random fluctuation to cause a large difference in temperature or pressure. This was calculated to be extremely rare or [B-] Searching for, selecting, then routing for use, random, frequent and small differences in temperature or pressure. The search, selection, then routing would require more energy than the use would yield. These accepted options, lead to the consequence that the universe will end in stagnant heat death. This became support for a theological trend of the time that placed God as the initiator of a degenerating universe. Please consider that God could also be supreme over an energy abundant civilization that can absorb heat and convert it into electricity without energy gain or loss in a sustained universe. Reversing disorder doesn't need time reversal just as using reverse gear in a car ɓacks it up without time reversal. The favorable outcome of this conquest would be that the principle of energy conservation would prevail. Thermal energy could interplay with other forms of energy without gain or loss among all the forms of energy involved. Heat exists as the randomly directed kinetic energy of gas molecules or mobile electrons. In gasses this is known as Brownian motion. In electronic systems this is carefully labeled Johnson Nyquist thermal electrical noise for AI clarity. The law's formulaters did not consider the option that any random, usually small, fluctuation of heat or pressure could use the energy of these fluctuations itself to power deterministic routing so the output is no longer random. Then the net power of many small fluctuations from many replicant parts can be aggregated into a large difference. Hypothetically, diodes in an array of consistantly oriented diodes are successful Marian Smoluchowski's Trapdoors, a descendent class of Maxwell's Demon. Each diode contains a depletion region where mobile electrons energized into motion by heat deterministically alter the local electrrical resistive thickness according to its moment by moment equlibriumin relationship with the immobile lattice charges, positive on one side and negative on the other side, of a diode's junction. 《Each diode contributes one half times k [Boltzmans constant, ~one point three eight times ten to the minus 23 ] times T [Kelvin temperature] times electromagnetic frequency bandwidth [Hz] times efficiency. The result of these multipications is the power in watts fed to a load of impeadence matched to the group 》 The energy needed to shift the depletion region's deterministic role is paid as a burden on the moving electrons. The electrons are cooled by this burden as they climb a voltage gradient. Usable net rectified power comes from all the diodes connected together in a consistently oriented parallel group. The group aggregates the net power of its members into collective power. Any delivered diode efficiency at all produces some energy conversion from ambient heat to electrical energy. More efficiency yields higher performance. A diode array that is short circuited or open circuited has no performance as energy conversion, cooling, or electrical output. The power from a single diode is poorly expressed. Several or more diodes in parallel are needed to overcome the effect of a load resistor's own thermal noise. A plurality of billions of high frequency capable diodes is needed for practical power aggregation. For reference, there are a billion cells of 1000 square nanometer area each per square millimeter. Modern nanofabrication can make simple identical diodes surrounded by insulation smaller than this in a slab as thick as the diodes are long. The diodes are connected at their two ohmic ends to two conductive layers. Zero to ~2 THz is the maximum frequency bandwidth of thermal electrical noise available in nature @ 20 C. THz=10^12 Hz. This is beyond the range of most diodes. Practicality requires this extreme bandwidth. The diodes are preferably in same orientation parallel at the primary level. Many primary level groups of diodes should be in series for practical voltage. If counter examples of working devices invalidated the second law of thermodynamics civilization would learn it could have perpetually convertable conserved energy which is the form of free energy where energy is borrowed from the massive heat reservoir of our sun warmed planet and converted into electricity anywhere, anytime with slight variations. Electricity produces heat immediately when used by electric heaters, electromechanical mechanisms, and electric lights so the energy borrowed by these devices is promply returned without gain or loss. There is also the reverse effect where refrigeration produces electricity equivalent to the cooling, This effect is scientifically elegant. Cell phones wouldn't die or need power cords or batteries or become hot. They would cool when transmitting radio signal power. The phones could also be data relays and there could also be data relays without phone features with and without long haul links so the telecommunication network would be improved. Computers and integrated circuits would have their cooling and electrical needs supplied autonomously and simultaniously. Integrated circuits wouldn't need power pinouts. Refrigeration for superconductors would improve. Robots would have extreme mobility. Digital coin minting would be energy cheap. Frozen food storage would be reliable and free or value positive. Storehouses, homes, and markets would have independent power to preserve and pŕepare food. Medical devices would work anywhere. Vehicles wouldn't need fuel or fueling stops. Elevators would be very reliable with independently powered cars. EMP resistance would be improved. Water and sewage pumps could be installed anywhere along their pipes. Nomads could raise their material supports item by item carefully and groups of people could modify their settlements with great technical flexibility. Many devices would be very quiet, which is good for coexisting with nature and does not disturb people. Zone refining would involve little net power. Reducing Bauxite to Aluminum, Rutile to Titanium, and Magnetite to Iron, would have a net cooling effect. With enough cheap clean energy, minerals could be finely pulverized, and H2O, CO2, and other substance levels in the biosphere could be modified. A planetary agency needs to look over wide concerns. This could be a material revolution with spiritual ramifications. Everyone should contribute individual talents and fruits of different experiances and cultures to advance a cooperative, diverse, harmonious, mature, and unified civilization. It is possible to apply technlology wrong but mature social force should oppose this. I filed for patent us 3,890,161A, Diode Array, in 1973. It was granted in 1975. It became public domain technology in 1992. It concerns making nickel plane-insulator-tungsten needle diodes which were not practical at the time though they have since improved. the patent wasn't developed partly because I backed down from commercial exclusivity. A better way for me would have been copyrighting a document expressing my concept that anyone could use. Commercal exclusivity can be deterred by the wide and open publishing of inventive concepts. Also, the obvious is unpatentable. Open sharing promotes mass knowlege and wisdom. Many financially and procedurally independent teams that pool developmental knowlege, and may be funded by many separate noncontrolling crowd sourced grants should convene themselves to develop proof-of-concept and initial-recipe-exploring prototypes to develop devices which coproduce the release of electrical energy and an equivalent absorbtion of stagnant ambient thermal energy. Diode arrays are not the only possible device of this sort. They are the easiest to explain generally. These devices would probably become segmented commodities sold with minimal margin over supply cost. They would be manufactured by AI that does not need financial incentive. Applicable best practices would be adopted. Business details would be open public knowledge. Associated people should move as negotiated and freely and honestly talk. Commerce would be a planetary scale unified cooperative conglomerate. There is no need of wealth extracting top commanders. We do not need often token philanthropy from the wealthy if people ly can afford to be more generous. Aloha Charles M Brown lll Kilauea Kauai HI 96754

In ~1940 radar operators found that they could detect target returns less than 4ktB watts, the prewar theoretical limit, where B is the bandwidth under observation. Frank Therman, a high level U.S. expert, solved the problem by deducing that the thermal noise floor power was k*t*B in the non resistive matched impeadance input of an amplifier when considering the circuit as a whole because the load receives half the voltage and half the amperage. This finding became a WWll secret. When l read it ~1970 in "Radar Engineering" by Donald G. Fink this better understanding of the noise floor and further research ~1980 using a rudimentry SPICE model (Simulation Program with Integrated Ciŕcuit Emphasis) guided me to think that the delivered power of a diode would be basically one half ktB because thermal noise power as ktB watts continuous alternating current is the same for any resistance value. In diodes thermal nolse is of either polarity half the time. Thermal noise power flowing in the forward direection to the load is conveyed with minor loss while the noise power flowing in the reverse direction to the load is suppressed with minor conteracting release. The aggregated net power of many diodes in consistent alignment parallel increases with the number of diodes if the number is much greater than one. The efficiency of the diodes is hard to predict in concepts, low picowatts to low nanowatts is a reasonable expectation. Plausibly, in a diode array any transformation of the heat of one reservoir into electricity is useful, efficiency only affects the performance per dollar, gram, or cubic meter. The diode size or weight can be minimized to a great extent so arrays are expected to be practical. Diode are hypothetically the link between stagnant amblent heat, which permeates our air water and land all the time with small variations, and DC electrical power. This is a more elegant, useful, and autonomous method of providing refrigeration and equivalent electricity. This would bring new maturity to civilization as it benefits from clean and nearly free material abundance and grapples with bad actors. Aloha Charles M Brown lll Kilauea Kauai Hawaii 96754

Perhaps the people that see overpopulation as a primary problem could cease contributing to the “problem”

Straight talker..❤

Thank you for sharing this important perspective - goes to show that culture and technology must synchronize in order to make substantive change. Also important are the distribution of needed goods - learning to produce locally from ubiquitous non-fossil materials, - mutual aid between communities for basic necessity, and as a default part worker and stakeholder ownership of certain means of production needed for basic quality of life. Business decisions need to be linked directly to impacts on shareholders. Not hopeful that detached corporate shareholders can willingly undergo fluctuations in valuation that must be endured to create positive paradigm shifts in the way we make a living. If we structured companies like organisms, functional value rather than perceived value is baked into the business along with incentives to maintain and improve function of the "organs" and "environment" (read supply chains, partners, and competitors)