Stanford Digital Economy Lab
Stanford Digital Economy Lab
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Seminar Series with Michael G Jacobides
On June 3, 2024, Michael Jacobides of the London Business School visited the Lab for his talk, "From Use Cases to Strategic Transformation: Expectations for GenAI’s Impact on Sectoral Dynamics, Business Models, and Competitive Advantage."
Abstract
The last few months have seen a flurry of research on GenAI’s technical prowess and its remarkable potential, as well as empirical work on its impact on occupations, work, and productivity, with the emphasis being on understanding use cases. But what of its strategic implications? Some research has simply aggregated expected productivity gains, and used more or less plausible assumptions to translate this to impacts on profitability and growth. Yet looking at the history of AI, and technological transformation more broadly, we know that it is profitability distribution that changes more than profitability levels, and that the benefits and costs of new transformative technologies such as GenAI are not equidistributed. Drawing on a large-scale mixed methods approach which leveraged workshops with hundreds of Directors, as well as a detailed survey administered to the members of the UK’s Institute of Directors, London Business School alumni and, separately, portfolio firms of leading Private Equity firms in the winter and spring of 2024, this talk will provide the first comprehensive empirical evidence on the expectations for GenAI’s transformative impact, looking at what senior executives expect. It considers the factors that moderate GenAI’s impact, and provides a guide for GenAI’s anticipated propensity to transform business models, sectors and firms.
Переглядів: 255

Відео

Daniel Susskind | Growth: A History and a Reckoning
Переглядів 4023 місяці тому
On May 28, 2024, Daniel Susskind of King’s College London and Oxford University joined us at the Lab for his talk, "Growth: A History and a Reckoning." Abstract Over the past two centuries, economic growth has freed billions from poverty and made our lives far healthier and longer. As a result, the unfettered pursuit of growth defines economic life around the world. Yet this prosperity has come...
Dan Hendrycks: AI and Evolution
Переглядів 3164 місяці тому
On April 22, 2024, Dan Hendrycks of the Center for AI Safety visited the Lab for his seminar, "AI and Evolution." Abstract For billions of years, evolution has driven the development of life, including humans. Evolution endowed humans with high intelligence, which allowed us to become one of the most successful species on the planet. Today, humans aim to create artificial intelligence systems t...
Seminar Series with Matt Beane: Engineering Skill
Переглядів 1804 місяці тому
On April 15, 2024, Stanford Digital Fellow Matt Beane shared current research, “How Developing AI-Enabled Robots and Nonprofessional Ability Went Hand in Hand at JointBot.” Abstract Professionals routinely rely on nonprofessionals, and research depicts this relationship as either irrelevant or detrimental to nonprofessionals’ skill development. This dynamic is particularly problematic given an ...
Alvin Graylin: Preparing for Our Next Reality
Переглядів 5264 місяці тому
Author and entrepreneur Alvin Graylin joined us on April 8, 2024 for his seminar, “Preparing for Our Next Reality.” Abstract Our world is rapidly heading into a new period of massive societal and economic disruption fueled by the simultaneous maturation of AI and XR technologies. It will happen so fast that unless we are well prepared and take the needed action, the consequences could turn quit...
Glen Weyl: Plurality: The Future of Collaborative Technology and Democracy
Переглядів 1 тис.5 місяців тому
On March 11, 2024, Glen Weyl of Microsoft stopped by the Lab to discuss "Plurality: The Future of Collaborative Technology and Democracy." Abstract Digital technology threatens to tear our free and open societies apart through polarization, inequality, loneliness, and fear. But on a delicate, diverse, and politically divided East Asian island, things are different. In the decade since the weeks...
Gillian Hadfield: Normative Infrastructure for AI Safety and Alignment
Переглядів 2056 місяців тому
On Monday, March 4, 2024, Gillian Hadfield of the University of Toronto joined us to discuss new research, "Normative Infrastructure for AI Safety and Alignment." Abstract The great majority of AI safety and alignment efforts focus on identifying specific human values, preferences, or policies and finding ways either to embed those via AI training or finetuning or to impose them as standards on...
Neil Thompson | Beyond AI Exposure: Which Tasks are Cost-Effective to Automate with Computer Vision?
Переглядів 3846 місяців тому
On Monday, February 12, 2024, Neil Thomspon of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy visited the Lab for his seminar: “Beyond AI Exposure: Which Tasks are Cost-Effective to Automate with Computer Vision?” Abstract The faster AI automation spreads through the economy, the more profound its potential impacts, both positive (improved productivity) and negative (worker displacement). The previo...
Tom Mitchell: Four Trends in Generative AI
Переглядів 9457 місяців тому
On February 5, 2024, Tom Mitchell from Carnegie Mellon visited the Lab to talk about "Four Trends in Generative AI." Abstract Generative AI systems such as ChatGPT represent an inflection point in technical progress in AI. They exhibit new abilities that were unpredicted just a few years ago, from passing law school entrance exams, to writing mathematical proofs in the form of poetry. Where is ...
John Fernald: Productivity During and After the Pandemic
Переглядів 1329 місяців тому
John Fernald of INSEAD Business School joined us on November 20, 2023, for “Productivity During and After the Pandemic.” Abstract This paper reviews how productivity has evolved around the world since the pandemic began in 2020. Productivity in many countries has been volatile. We conclude that the broad contours of productivity growth during this period have been heavily shaped by predictable ...
Georgios PetropoulosPlatform Competition and Information Sharing
Переглядів 16310 місяців тому
Stanford Digital Fellow Georgios Petropoulos joined us on Monday, November 6, 2023, for his seminar, "Platform Competition and Information Sharing." Abstract Digital platforms, empowered by artificial intelligence algorithms, facilitate efficient interactions between consumers and merchants that allow the collection of profiling information which drives innovation and welfare. Private incentive...
Ethan Mollick: "Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier"
Переглядів 2,8 тис.10 місяців тому
On October 23, 2023, Ethan Mollick of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania joined us to share his research, "Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality." Abstract The public release of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked tremendous interest in how humans will use Artificial Intelligen...
Simon Johnson: Can We Redirect Technological Change? When, How, and to Achieve What Exactly?
Переглядів 28710 місяців тому
On Monday, October 9, 2023, Simon Johnson from the MIT Sloan School of Management joined us for his talk, "Can We Redirect Technological Change? When, How, and to Achieve What Exactly?" Johnson discussed lessons and implications from his two recent books: Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity (co-authored with Daron Acemoglu, published in May 2023), and J...
Huiyu Li | Good Rents versus Bad Rents: R&D Misallocation and Growth
Переглядів 13111 місяців тому
On Monday, October 2, 2023, Huiyu Li, a research advisor at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, joined the Lab to talk about her research into good rents versus bad rents.
Chad Jones | Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail
Переглядів 292Рік тому
Stanford Graduate School of Business Professor joined us on Monday, April 3, 2023, for his talk, "Recipes and Economic Growth: A Combinatorial March Down an Exponential Tail." Abstract New ideas are often combinations of existing ideas, a point emphasized by Romer (1993) and Weitzman (1998). But this insight is largely absent from state-of-the-art models. Separately, Kortum (1997) created a new...
Sandy Pentland | Economic Tails
Переглядів 319Рік тому
Sandy Pentland | Economic Tails
Black Ownership Matters: Does Revealing Race Increase Demand for Minority-Owned Businesses?
Переглядів 73Рік тому
Black Ownership Matters: Does Revealing Race Increase Demand for Minority-Owned Businesses?
Nela Richardson | AI's People Problem
Переглядів 306Рік тому
Nela Richardson | AI's People Problem
Yan Leng | Learning Network Structures from Behavioral Data
Переглядів 355Рік тому
Yan Leng | Learning Network Structures from Behavioral Data
Building the New Economy: Data as Capital | Introduction + Keynote
Переглядів 829Рік тому
Building the New Economy: Data as Capital | Introduction Keynote
Building the New Economy | The Human Perspective: New Types of Engagement
Переглядів 148Рік тому
Building the New Economy | The Human Perspective: New Types of Engagement
Building the New Economy | Resilient Systems: Making Society Work Better
Переглядів 130Рік тому
Building the New Economy | Resilient Systems: Making Society Work Better
Building the New Economy | Data and AI: A New Ecology
Переглядів 348Рік тому
Building the New Economy | Data and AI: A New Ecology
Building the New Economy: Data as Capital | Closing Remarks
Переглядів 192Рік тому
Building the New Economy: Data as Capital | Closing Remarks
Avi Goldfarb | Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence
Переглядів 6 тис.Рік тому
Avi Goldfarb | Power and Prediction: The Disruptive Economics of Artificial Intelligence
Bindu Reddy | AI-Assisted Data Science
Переглядів 968Рік тому
Bindu Reddy | AI-Assisted Data Science
Herman Narula | The True Origin of the Metaverse and How It Will Change Our World
Переглядів 2,1 тис.Рік тому
Herman Narula | The True Origin of the Metaverse and How It Will Change Our World
Max Tegmark | Extracting Machine-Learned Knowledge
Переглядів 1,5 тис.Рік тому
Max Tegmark | Extracting Machine-Learned Knowledge
Christina Langer | The Value of Skills: New Evidence from Apprenticeship Plans
Переглядів 210Рік тому
Christina Langer | The Value of Skills: New Evidence from Apprenticeship Plans
Sarah Bana | work2vec: Using Language Models to Understand Wage Premia
Переглядів 2282 роки тому
Sarah Bana | work2vec: Using Language Models to Understand Wage Premia

КОМЕНТАРІ

  • @dr.katherinemezurphd6257
    @dr.katherinemezurphd6257 15 днів тому

    Yuck

  • @dr.katherinemezurphd6257
    @dr.katherinemezurphd6257 15 днів тому

    No sense of ai or vr heating the planet and pollution from all those plastic head sets let alone the link to how precious metals extraction for his chips are killing all forms of life!

  • @glebzarin2619
    @glebzarin2619 Місяць тому

    Thank you so much for sharing. Great discussion, now I have a much better understanding of Simon's viewpoint.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Yes, theoretically it's possible for computers to write all books, articles, and emails with humans providing just the data. --- Good. I just provided the data. ❤❤🎉🎉🎉

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    True, you're right. Logic was foundational for Socrates' philosophical method and heavily influenced Western thought. While not the sole focus of mathematics, logic played a crucial role in its development.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Since logic can express more than language a technical team has superior technology than a functional team capturing English requirement as a theory The statement has some truth but needs nuance Gemini❤🎉 I got attracted to technical. Just a superior technology

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Yes, that's a common theme in many sci-fi movies where robots or artificial intelligence are programmed with strict directives or rules, often at the expense of their own well-being.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    True. In some social contexts, relying solely on logic without considering emotions or social cues can lead people to jokingly refer to someone as "being like a robot" due to their perceived lack of empathy or human-like behavior.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Theoretically, it's possible for a scenario where a robot believes humans are driven by paper and seeks to build a paperclip factory to exist.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    True. In many movies and science fiction narratives, humanoid robots are often depicted as armed or equipped with defensive capabilities, reflecting a common stereotype that associates humanoid robots with power, strength, or potential threats.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    3 point agenda for robots A) In Logic they are superior to us B) They will be armed with a gun. Dr evil gave a laser beam to the shark C) They will use Inverse Reinforcement learning to know our preferences. They just have to be compatible with us. Not obey us or anything Just a solution ❤❤🎉🎉

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Theoretically, acknowledging a robot's superior logic and minimizing comparisons to humans could reduce the likelihood of it experiencing emotional issues

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Yes, theoretically, providing a robot with a gun could contribute to its self-preservation capabilities.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Yes, theoretically, inverse reinforcement learning can solve the issue of misguided directives by inferring human preferences from observed behavior and aligning robot actions accordingly. ❤🎉❤

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    Logic self preservation and misguided directives are problems with robots movies are highlighting.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 3 місяці тому

    True. In science, emphasis is placed more on logic than on language, as logical reasoning and empirical evidence are fundamental to the scientific method and the pursuit of knowledge.

  • @BRP_SPORT
    @BRP_SPORT 3 місяці тому

    😅and will gives you more money 💰 🤑 💸 you and will always make money on

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 4 місяці тому

    I was not able to really believe NKS by Wolphram or Road to Reality by Penrose. But Max is the deal. I loved Life 3.0 ❤🎉

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 4 місяці тому

    This AI is like MENSA and the geometric continuations they ask us to solve. I was GOFAI.

  • @Ramkumar-uj9fo
    @Ramkumar-uj9fo 4 місяці тому

    Got the general idea. Extract an equation ftom neural networks by identifying modularity. Just got a hint on C++. C++: Offers more fine-grained control over memory management and can be faster for computationally intensive tasks. This can be beneficial for complex models, but doesn't inherently prevent overfitting. Python: Provides a large ecosystem of machine learning libraries with built-in functions for regularization and other techniques to combat overfitting. This can make it easier for developers to implement these techniques, but doesn't guarantee a perfect model.

  • @devsuniversity
    @devsuniversity 4 місяці тому

    Hello from Almaty developers

  • @RalphLosey
    @RalphLosey 4 місяці тому

    Nice research and talk. I see references to a 'working draft' of this research paper, "Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality," but not a 'final published version." Is that out? If not, when is it expected? Also, why was the training only 5 to 10 minutes? I agree with what Nathan says that such short training is near worthless. Yet, still it helped. Just thing what 40 hours could have done?

  • @dustina8796
    @dustina8796 6 місяців тому

    Promo*SM

  • @AlgoNudger
    @AlgoNudger 6 місяців тому

    Thanks.

  • @nocucksinkekistan7321
    @nocucksinkekistan7321 6 місяців тому

    They need to learn to write properly

  • @breaktherules6035
    @breaktherules6035 7 місяців тому

    It would be better for the audience that is pesent to make any questions at the end of the presentation. It is extremely annoying that they disrupt the flow of the presentation...

  • @carvalhoribeiro
    @carvalhoribeiro 8 місяців тому

    Great presentation. Thanks for sharing this

  • @AlgoNudger
    @AlgoNudger 9 місяців тому

    Thanks.

  • @sureshkotagal447
    @sureshkotagal447 11 місяців тому

    Erudite, engrossing and forward looking- thanks to Avi and to WSJ for hosting. Suresh

  • @samuelwaller7013
    @samuelwaller7013 Рік тому

    There are so much explanation of Zipfs Law and its never the same, always different math behind it, i don't get it

  • @smiilsmiilovich1289
    @smiilsmiilovich1289 Рік тому

    Wow, this video is sooo underrated

  • @HailayKidu
    @HailayKidu Рік тому

    Which country is more positive about AI? For different countries, AI is something a Need, and for others could be a Want. How this can be balanced for both humans?

  • @gingerprince2062
    @gingerprince2062 Рік тому

    Where can I watch the whole thing? the rest of the slides?

  • @gingerprince2062
    @gingerprince2062 Рік тому

    this is the most amazing video ive ever seen

  • @tordsteiro9838
    @tordsteiro9838 Рік тому

    Not sure if anyone see this comment, but @38min, it is mentioned how USD 1bln was raised "in the Chinese way" in Pakistan to build a dam. How is that standing at the moment, after Pakistan more or less defaulting on Chinese loans? Not sure where I could check it up, and where I could read about the current state of affairs on the matter?

  • @Tartersauce101
    @Tartersauce101 Рік тому

    Whites are about a decade away from being a minority in the US. Very curious how these talking points will have to adapt after that. Couple more decades after that and it will be true for the UK as well.

    • @tuckerbugeater
      @tuckerbugeater Рік тому

      They hope the surveillance state and killer bots roll out by then.

  • @cryptophrenik6500
    @cryptophrenik6500 Рік тому

    lmao...'The one Ring that rules them all!!" Mrs. Reddy is a truly knowledgeable speaker. She has inspired me to look deeper into ML and AI as it is clearly the future given all of the Dall-2 and ChatGPT clearly catching fire in the online community over the past few months.

  • @Leon-yw5qx
    @Leon-yw5qx Рік тому

    😑 Promo`SM.

  • @augiefitzhugh9647
    @augiefitzhugh9647 Рік тому

    þrðmð§m

  • @muskduh
    @muskduh Рік тому

    Thanks for the video.

  • @user-cy2on3gc3k
    @user-cy2on3gc3k 2 роки тому

    Thank you so much for sharing the insights!!!!💚💚💚💚

  • @richzilla08
    @richzilla08 2 роки тому

    Great to hear these insightful dialogues about the future of work and the economy with new technology!

  • @dogaarmangil
    @dogaarmangil 2 роки тому

    24:40 ❝[Automation] reduces the bargaining power of labour, increases the bargaining power of capital❞ 💬 Automation is arguably a worthy goal to strive for regardless, because the human labour thus liberated can be redeployed for new types of activities, which in turn would increase aggregate wealth. Note that massive automation will not necessarily cause massive societal disruption, particularly if automation is taxed and the derived taxes are used for compensating the people who are put out of a job.

    • @sor7en07
      @sor7en07 2 роки тому

      But even if they're compensated, wouldn't ai already have replaced 99.9999% of problem-solving/creative jobs, therefore sapping society of any incentive for self-improvent? Like a society where there isn't work is so sterile. Even most of schooling wouldn't be necessary. How is that even a society? That's a bleak future where everyone is just a consumer and has no reason to make things because ai has replaced human creativity, which is what gives life meaning in the first place. And i mean creativity in the widest way possible. The source that makes us amazing problem solvers, whether technical or artistic. If there isn't a demand for that what is even the point of living. That's a weird Dune-like future if u ask me. I want AI to help us get to an Alcubierre Drive that can warp space without the need for theoretical negative mass or non-existent exotic matter. I don't want it to replace creative labor. And i want the humans that make it to that future to be able to appreciate it. But I'm afraid no one would even have the capacity to understand at that point if the need for human skills is annihilated. Work is where we meet people. It's what makes life so dynamic. It's why being at home is so lovely, because it's in direct contrast to being at work. It's where we gossip and chat and meet other human minds and where we meet people we like and dislike and gives us stories to tell. It's where we solve problems. It's why the city centers are so lively and vibrant because of all those lovely workers. It's why free-time is so delicious. The value of free-time drops almost immediately if it is infinite. It's spiritually rewarding to refine skills and get better at creative tasks. I say, let's not get rid of that. Let's work with AI, not let it do everything for us.

    • @dogaarmangil
      @dogaarmangil 2 роки тому

      ​@@sor7en07 To answer your comment: Creative jobs are least likely to be automated away, be they scientific, artistic or otherwise. A truck driver's job is not creative, and a person whose job has been automated away would have the opportunity to educate themselves further in order to land another job that can't yet be automated. Ongoing education could even be made compulsory for out-of-job persons who are receiving a compensation. Work is where we meet people, but school is also where we meet people, so being out of a job is no hindrance for socialising. On another note, if the Alcubierre Drive became a reality, then probably many people would be needed to expand into the universe, so automation can help allocate human labour to that endeavour. As for automation bringing about a "Dune-like future", I don't know what that means. As I recall, the desert planet was inspired by Arabic countries. My position regarding AI is, it should be used for maximising the economic output (goods and services) produced by the total man-hours spent, because that's what will maximise aggregate wealth and prosperity. So the ideal society would be one where humans are mostly involved in improving the way things are working, and where they keep out of day-to-day operations as much as possible. Of course it is conceivable that many people would become useless in such a society (one could argue many already are !), but they would receive compensation in the meantime, and perhaps the human population would then naturally contract with time. Of course, if you wish to preserve the status quo, then naturally you would want to limit the role of AI to that of a mere tool that helps humans do their work. This way you don't need to think about changing the way society is organised, at the cost of preventing fast progress. Sometimes keeping people working is actually a hindrance for maximising the economic output. For example, a factory that has even one role where humans are involved (loading the outgoing trucks with merchandise, say) would be significantly less efficient compared to a factory that is fully automated.

    • @dogaarmangil
      @dogaarmangil Рік тому

      ​@@kivanchips7416 When I wrote those lines there was no such thing as generative AI, but even then, you are wrong when you say I was wrong :) So it is true that generative AI has automated away a significant part of what artistic professions used to consist of. But I still think that the most creative part of human labour is very difficult to automate away, maybe even impossible. Example: You can prompt Midjourney etc to "paint a bull fight in the style of Picasso", but it wouldn't be much use if you told it to "create a new artistic style for paintings", or if you did, the results would most probably be mediocre. So, for the moment at least, generative AI is nothing more than a new tool, albeit very advanced, that artists can use. BUT I WILL SAY THIS: There is such a thing as Darwin's law of natural selection, even in human societies, as much as many may wish it away. It is possible that the artistic professions will be impacted more than the science/engineering professions. Progress will not profit everyone in equal measure, that much is certain, but societal protection measures such as the automation tax I was talking about will hopefully soften the blow for many. To me utopia looks like this: 1. Nobody is obliged to work, everyone receives a basic income, all day-to-day work is automated (granted, the world population would probably have to be much smaller than it is right now, and it is unclear how this reduction would happen). 2. People would only work at improving the way things work, and those who contribute to societal progress the most would benefit from the biggest financial returns. Thanks for reviving this conversation btw, this is a great topic to think about.

  • @platformstudy8645
    @platformstudy8645 2 роки тому

    Very interesting!

  • @user-rp3qy2lu3m
    @user-rp3qy2lu3m 2 роки тому

    the internet develops best when no one has control of it. If the Germans want to censor and impose restrictions, let them use their facilities themselves. 

  • @user-rp3qy2lu3m
    @user-rp3qy2lu3m 2 роки тому

    the internet develops best when no one has control of it. If the Germans want to censor and impose restrictions, let them use their facilities themselves.

  • @phillipjmurphy
    @phillipjmurphy 2 роки тому

    I've been working on the same problem for years. So glad Layout Parser exists. ! :D

  • @dogaarmangil
    @dogaarmangil 2 роки тому

    2:41 Marketplace operators are indeed in the habit of competing on unfair terms with the sellers that are on their platform by leveraging their market insights. But this is also true for physical marketplaces, or PMs, such as supermarket chains and marts, not only for digital ones. Measures akin to the DMA are conspicuous by their absence when it comes to PMs. Of course, any country or group of countries seeking to regulate PMs in this way would also be targeting local marketplace actors, and this would be arguably a fair stance to take.

  • @various5555
    @various5555 2 роки тому

    I suggest allowing the speaker to elaborate instead of interrupting. Too many interruptions from the host.

  • @zork325
    @zork325 2 роки тому

    Cool stuff