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@@eleventhhouseofzenith I think Harris will lose by a smaller margin compared to Biden. Biden did not do a good job as president and he showed everyone how weak he was. Kamala is not as weak as Joe and clearly there is some excitement for her.

Yes you did. And thank you.

@@eleventhhouseofzenith Because there were no changes on the petitions compared to last week

@@eleventhhouseofzenith Certainly, a lot of voters, especially the last few years have been moving away from the Democratic Party based on their registered voters. They only started gaining numbers again this year but I suspect they will lose it all by the end of next year. There’s probably a number of reasons, but the one I do think is causing a good amount of this exodus is due to their attempts to remove third party candidates off the ballot. Furthermore, the GOP has won North Carolina in the last three presidential elections. And even though I don’t like it, I have to acknowledge that there are a lot of MAGA voters in NC. Plus there were more polls in 2020 predicting Biden would win NC, but they would be wrong. I do think Trump will win by a narrow margin not because people like him, but because there is more hate for how Biden and Harris for handling the economy. The state overall does tend to lean more conservative.

​@James9Numbers thank you. Do independents in that state tend to go more conservative? Is there any changes in the independent numbers, such as are they going up significantly? Any strange outliers you have seen the last year? One of the gop nc figures complained about stacy abrams registering alot of people. I personally can't tell of any significant change.

Yes, Independents overall do tend to lean more conservative than liberal in North Carolina. Nonetheless there are thousands who vote third party very often. Yes, for most weeks since I started doing this in 2022, the unaffiliated demographic has grown faster in terms of numbers than republicans. The gap between the dems and GOP in terms of registered voters has been shrinking for a while and it’s not stopping. It’s expected that the GOP will surpass Dems by 2030 if current trends continue. Unaffiliated voters are growing by the thousands per week while the GOP makes gains only up to a few thousand. Dems have only started to grow their numbers after years of decline, but they are minuscule at best. In terms of what happened last year, the democrats, republicans, and libertarians did face a net loss in voters last year. The Green Party was the only demographic that did not lose voters at the beginning of the year, but that might be credited from the fact that the party had just recently certified after a long ballot access fight. The unaffiliated demographic actually faced the sharpest decline in numbers, but that decline lasted only 2 weeks, while the GOP and Libertarians had 3 weeks and the dems had 4 weeks. Overall Democrats did so poorly in 2023 with so many weekly declines throughout the year with very few weeks of gains. After No Labels was certified, there was a week where No Labels gained more voters than unaffiliated, but of course that didn’t last long. The unaffiliated demographic was the only demographic that was able to recover all of its numbers it lost at the beginning of 2023. Is it possible Stacy Abrams has temporarily stopped the decline of registered democratic voters? It’s possible but I’m not sure. Nonetheless, Republicans are still on track to surpass the Dems by 2030.

@James9Numbers another question. The gop has been outperforming dems for years in registration, yet north carolina is considered the most stagnant state in political movement, wouldn't that mean more independents or third parties going dem at the booth?

@@eleventhhouseofzenith Nah. Thee Democratic Party is a very weak party in North Carolina right now. In other races, the reason I believe that some of the statewide races are close is because the GOP has packed some controversial and arguably very radical candidates this time around, but they will likely still win by small margins. If anything there have been some people leaving the duopoly due to certain issues, but it might not add to much. Some people on the left have left the Democrats due to their corruption involving third parties. After all it was the Dems who attempted to block RFK because they thought that he would split votes from the dems. some on the right are also fleeing the Republican Party due to certain issues such as abortion. Furthermore, the dems only won NC once in the last 11 presidential elections. Furthermore, 2020 was the best case scenario for democrats for the US Senate election because there two third parties (both of whom lean right and no left wing third party candidate) and they still lost.

Thanks

I actually have been looking into it. During that time, I had also been facing minor blackouts for some time likely because it's hot outside. I know for certain it is not from my end that is causing the problem because I have two wifi connections. Neighbors have also faced the same problem, so I know it's not just from my end.